Sunday, June 30, 2002

Random thoughts on nationalism,inspired by a few posts in the blog still angry

Just finished reading Hagen Schulze's: States, Nations, Nationalism which tracks the development of the aforementioned institutions and concepts from middle-ages to the present. On the whole, it turned out to be much too complex a work to be absorbed in one go, but it did raise some questions I found fascinating. Jotted down a few notes a few notes on it for your amusement (note that it's hardly fluent prose. If you find any omissions or errors you consider important,do comment or email).

Birth of Nations
This will be a gross generalisation, but I think one can say with a reasonable accuracy that either states gave birth to nations, or nations gave birth to states. In case of the former, it applies mostly to the states in Europe that developed a central rule early, in particular France and England. France in particular would be an easy example as they were the first in a lot of things dealing with creation of state organs and institutions, whether it is a central bureucracy or a standing army. It's also worthwile to notice the status of language as a binding factor, Cardinal Richelieu founded the Academy of France in as early as 1635, and one of it's main functions was the standardization of the French language which lasted literally for centuries. In it's own way, religion played it's part here as well, as in the protestant christian countries the translated bible played a significant part in getting a head start with language consolidation (most striking example would be Martin Luther and german language).

Then there's the "other part" religion played, whether it's Spain of Isabella and Ferdinand expelling first the moors and then the jews or France expelling it's protestants (the huguenots). In any case, by the standards of the time each was quite an expedient move as it provided a single unifying factor:Catholicism. The 30-years war was in it's way the first pan-European war and last major one over religion (protestants vs. counter-reformation) and even then it wasnt that simple: France first under Richelieu and then Mazarin subsidized protestant Sweden with one hand while oppressing their own protestant huguenots with the other. But on the whole it can be said there was a strong tendency towards religious uniformity until 20th century, and even then religion was used as a nationalistic tool or a weapon when expedient (Northern Ireland,anyone?). In essence, in most places where uniformity could be achieved,it was aimed for. There were some notable exceptions to the rule, particularly Poland-Lithuania (which as a multicultural and multireligious empire was forced to be remarkably tolerant in order not to compromise it's internal stability). As you might notice from the name references, at this point (17th century) religious policies were primary tools of the monarchs and could be enforced only if the central government could impose it's will on the periphery.

In both cases ,with Spain and France, the tendency was toward one religion as fractuous minorities placed a lot in the way of additional burden on the state, and revolts were rather common. It's also noteworthy that the 30-years war was the main event when religion exited from the political landscape of foreign relations in Europe. As per usual,it took a destructive war to learn a lesson.
To sum up: In France,England.. perhaps Sweden in the north and other strong countries the strongest early influence to creating a national identity was a strong state (for it's time,anyway).

On the opposite end of the spectrum would be the current day states which were born as a result of nationalism, a pull created by unifying factors binding people living under different states and governments. Yet again, language was a big influence,and later on it's influence was further increased by a variety of cultural phenomena; whether English tales of King Arthur,French tales of Roland, or German national mythology. Also noteworthy was a kind of institutional historical revisionism, if the histories produced at the early half of 19th centuries are to be believed,Europe's a 50/50 split between descendants of Troy and Athens (with a little Sparta thrown into the mix). Germany in particular created a sort of "neo-pagan" history for itself,reaching back to the tribes mentioned by Romans,waxing poetic about the superiority of the german race (interestingly enough, of "germanic" peoples the english were by far the most successfull at that time. A minor fact people rather preferred to not to pay attention to). Note that in general nations forged by strong states were born earlier than states created by nationalist sentiment.

Like any political or cultural paradigm shift, nationalism also changed the wider political landscape, the power of the sentiment manifesting itself became abundantly clear in western europe by the era of Napoleon and levee en masse, which harnessed the rising national sentiment and produced something of a military revolution as a second order side-effect. And finally, the shift caused by the new French strategy forced their targets to follow, mostly evident in the flood of political and propaganda pamphlets of the era (by that time propanganda was already a relatively refined instrument). However, in Germany and Austria-Hungary where the "forced wakeup" of nationalism was tried hardest,it still failed to catch during the early half of 19th century. As a more or less direct result of that, the Vienna Congress was virtually the last time the traditional Westphalian "balance of powers" could be practiced in Europe (Metternich etc.). By late 19th century, the rules had already changed.

So.. the question to the audience would be: Which case would US fall under? If I had to pick myself,it'd be the first one, ie. State created the Nation. At least would make sense in view of the "constitution worshipping" and the fact the state started as multicultural so there were fewer unifying factors than Old World states which had already formed centuries before (Well,France and England,anyway. US is in real terms an old state.). Also: Civil War era in the US was fairly close to the era when nationalism started raising it's head in Europe "for real".. was there ever a kind of "European style" situation where nationalistic (or partisan?) feelings were exploited for political purposes, whether for demonising one's enemies or leveraging it for domestic purposes? Ie. How did the North vs. South conflict pan out in terms of nationalism.

Militant Nationalism
If I had to pick an example of it on a large scale,something that changed the face of Europe, it'd have to be the aftermath of German unification and the humiliating defeat of France in the Franco-German war of 1870-1871. If there ever was a lesson to be had from that particular war it would have to be this : Humiliation is fuel for extreme nationalism.The lesson was enforced quite strongly by WW1, enough so that the lessons had sunk in by the time WW2 peace treaties were concluded. After Alsace-Lorraine was annexed by Germany ,they became a kind of a rallying cry for nationalism in France(revenge is one of the more powerful motives around) as well as the spark for an arms race which eventually set the stage for World War I some 45 years later. The indoctrination reached the classrooms(Say, Maps of Alsace-Lorraine on classroom walls,showing the said provinces as an everpresent reminder, or a monument in Paris representing Strasburg draped over, just standing there,covered), and it reached the newspapers, in short, nationalism was being built up as a tool to unleash on one's enemies.
Among the more recent examples would be of course the whole nationalistic pressure cooker from 1870 until the end of World War 2, and in recent days the Serb Nationalism. Serb nationalism also ties up nicely with the history part. Note the references to battle of Kosovo Polje, or Field of Blackbirds: A battle between Serbs and Turks in 1389. Serbs lost. Of course Turks,The Ottoman Empire, were muslim,and it's muslim population settled throughout the Balkans. Which established a convenient tie to the "muslims as invaders" mindset and where it went. And this was in 1990s.

Differences in nationalism between US and the "Old World".
After a while of thinking, I think at least one thing stands out: Homogenization. It's worthwile to pay attention to some manifestations of that particular feature today, whether it's Pim Fortyun expressing doubts about the wisdom of muslim immigration, or Seville summit ponderings on immigration legislation. One of the overarching themes seemed to be European wariness (or hostility) towards those immigrants who commit the cardinal sin of "not being like us", or even worse still, those who do not even want to become like us. Whether it's about culture or increasingly,religion, which is one of the ironies of today's increasingly atheist Europe: Religion making a comeback as a political issue.

Finally: types of nationalism.
- Cultural Nationalism , the nation as a positive focus of identity
- Liberal Nationalism , the nation as a basis/means of national/individual self-rule. democracy.
- Triumphal Nationalism,the nation as a claim to superiority (militancy could be considered a negative form of this one.).
I think of these options, Europe would probably focus strongest on cultural nationalism which also includes a sense of continuity , in a way. Liberal nationalism certainly plays it's part, particularly in UK, but also on the continent though there's less emphasis on individual liberties than in UK or US. And finally, triumphal nationalism.. a couple world wars went a long way towards removing much of the triumphalism from European scene (ever wonder why europeans dont fly their flags a whole lot,as opposed to US?) though it seems it's starting to increasingly manifest itself in a negative sense, namely resentment towards those more powerful than us. Or in other words: The United States. And thus the constant chafing and quiet resentment at what is perceived as US pushing aside the local interests.
As for US.. I'd wager cultural nationalism would be lower on the scale, but liberal and triumphal nationalism very high. What do you think?

PS. Check out Michael Trossman's Patriotism and Pop Culture essay at www.stillangry.org.

Update v0.5 I suspect I'll be rewriting this one constantly until I bow to the inevitable and decide it's too wide a topic to fit in one page.

Friday, June 28, 2002

On Iran

Seems like two noteworthy editorials/columns have appeared in the recent days, observing the issue of Iran from two different angles. First, there is the set of articles from Tehran by Thomas L. Friedman, ending with his "The View From Tehran", which mainly concentrates on the direction Iran seems to be heading and generally takes a moderately optimistic view if for no other reason than the fact the theocracy seems to be approaching the end of it's "shelf life". Friedman also handles the widening rift between the people in general and the conservative clerics, and whether it might result in some changes,including potentially radical ones.

A less optimistic view concentrating on what Iran is right now is taken by the Jerusalem Post which concentrates mostly on the security and strategy side of the issue including the Iranian funding of Hizbullah and other terrorist organizations. Neverthless,even Jpost makes a passing reference to the changing situation in Iran, with the caveat that "However, none of this should make the West forget who rules Iran effectively as opposed to theoretically and what these rulers are up to.". And finally, Jpost issues a warning and few requests regarding the recent careful opening of relations between EU and Iran (a few posts in my archive deal with the EU-Iran thing: 1, 2)
EU and NATO assets

Today's local paper Helsingin Sanomat reports (in finnish.) on the ongoing negotiations between EU and Turkey over NATO assets. So far nothing to report which either didnt go down very well with the Turks, or didnt get vetoed by Greece. Javier Solana's press rep Christina Gallach admitted the whole mess will move to the next country holding the presidency. Of course,as it happens,next country holding it will be Denmark who dont take part in the defense planning, and thus the responsibility about it is moved to the next country after them: Greece itself. In short, moving from a mildly tragicomic situation into one that promises to be a real three ring circus. And of course, Greek and Turkish intransigency can hold up the project for quite some time (note that Greece will handle the matter for the next year).

To sum up:
- EU and US agreed that it's not a "good thing" to duplicate NATO structures, (both politically and economically) so the EU force planning started from the assumptions they'll draw from NATO assets.
- Turkey, with it's EU membership negotiations stalled , is a member of NATO but not EU, notices the whole plan just handed them some leverage,and proceeds to hold up any NATO assets whatsoever from EU.
- After some wrangling, EU comes up a relatively tolerable deal with Turkey. Turkey's neighbour (and EU member) Greece vetoes it.
- And now, Greece will be taking care of the negotiations with Turkey for a year.

Wednesday, June 26, 2002

Direction of investment flows in Russia turning

IHT reports that more investment is flowing into Russia than leaving the country, a sign of increasing confidence. It is also the first time ever Russia is running a capital-account surplus. And finally, after the economic crash of 1998, Russia is now in it's fourth straight year of growth.
Investment tip? Look for "sell" ratings.

"Researchers at the University of California and Stanford reviewed almost 40,000 stock recommendations from 213 brokerages during the year 2000. The most highly rated stocks had a -31% return for the year, according to the study. Meanwhile, the stocks least favorably recommended (that is, the sells) soared an annualized 49%--a differential of 80 percentage points" - Fortune
Breaking the Bank

An interesting article by IHT on the coming trouble within EU concerning the CAP (common agricultural policy, read "pork") and expansion. In short form, should all the candidates be taken in, it'll increase number of farmers by half, without significantly increasing the financial base of EU (Former eastern bloc entrants have GDP/capitas significantly below current EU levels). In real terms it means something of a showdown between large net contributors and current subsidy receivers is in the work, starting between Germany and France.

Among other interesting finds: EU commission polled 16000 citizens about CAP (45 billion € /year. Roughly the same in USD). Half of them didnt know it existed.

Let's conclude with a recycled quote on CAP from the Economist: "the single most idiotic system of economic mismanagement that the rich Western countries have ever devised."
Spreading the link lovin'

Welcome to visitors from Stephen Green's place (and elsewhere,of course). Boosting traffic nicely. I'm still a little bemused about that warblogger designation,though.(European politics do no hawkish reading make,hmm?)

Tuesday, June 25, 2002

In local news

Finnish daily Ilta-Sanomat reports (In finnish.Just to show "it's there") the military is planning weapons purchases from Israel.
Among the items in the shopping basket: Ranger recon UAV, one of which was already acquired earlier and for which the military holds options for further orders. The other items would be the Spike AT missile which is also already in use by the army, and finally the Israeli built Dandy anti-ship missile which is participating in a tender by the navy and reportedly the favourite candidate. If the deals go through the estimated value is 100 million+ euros (for the Dandy alone,apparently, more for the rest). As expected, there are some political problems with it on the local scene (say, social democrats the leading party in the government and the social democrat president a former peace activist, sort of problem. That said,the president has given it the green light so far). A ministry of foreign affairs expert estimates the deals/decisions may be "delayed some" should the tensions in Israel go up. On the other hand, a ministry of defense official comments he is "not aware of any obstacles" for the purchases.
New supercomputer top 500

And #1 spot goes to the Japanese Earth Simulator built by NEC of Japan. The Earth Simulator outperforms the previous champ, IBM's ASCI White, roughly 5 to 1.
New Links

A few worthwile links (in the link bar): Moscow Times is a ,well,a muscovite daily,and Russia Journal a weekly. Russia Journal in particular comes up with interesting commentary every now and then (Can be surprising to see what western policies & politics look like from another angle).

And for the classics starved: The original "news" source, Pravda. Not the same thing anymore (un)fortunately.Suffice it to say it still has a nice "reddish tint" in it's reporting, leans left ,etc.

Monday, June 24, 2002

Consolidation of French foreign policy leadership

Ha'aretz reports on the shift on foreign policy leadership now that the "cohabitation" has ended and instead of the old "left hand doesnt know what the right is doing" approach dictated between a leftwing government and a center right president, both the president and the government represent a center-right coalition. (In France,President formulates the foreign policy,and foreign minister implements it, in short).

Interestingly, the first visit by the new foreign minister,de Villepin, to a non-European country is his visit to Israel starting today. Ha'aretz also analyses the implications of the change of government and what it might mean in the near future.
Russia.Antisemitism.

Putin awarded a medal to the Russian woman who got injured trying to remove a booby-trapped antisemitic sign. "for courage and selflessness in fulfilling her civic duty" goes the exact citation. She is currently receiving medical treatment in Israel.

(The link is to their "briefs" section so it'll probably die soonish. the news itself is plain syndicated fare,by AP).
Russian Farm Bill

Looks like the Russians finally got around to giving the old kolkhozy (collective farms) a proper burial: Moscow Times reports the Duma passed a bill allowing Russians to buy and sell farmland.In a curious reversal from a previous decision , an amendment restricting foreigners from buying farmland was slipped in (49 year lease is the closest one can get) and passed with an overwhelming majority (366-6).
In other news,Russia is looking to hop on the subsidy bandwagon as well: A Russia Journal article on the local need for agricultural subsidies. For comparison: Russia's state budget revenues in 2000 were some 40 billion USD (World Factbook). EU agricultural subsidies were around 40 billion euros.
Couldnt resist..

"For the Italian team, the whining noise doesn't stop when the plane touches down."
-By a BBC reporter(via Natalie Solent). Takes the #1 spot in World Cup quotes so far.

Sunday, June 23, 2002

On Russian economy.

William Browder, the CEO of Hermitage capital management talks about Russian corporate governance and particularly the web of corruption around the energy giant Gazprom, a true oddball case. Fully one quarter of world's natural gas reserves and a significant slice of it's oil reserves are controlled by Gazprom, which goes a long way towards explaining why it's such a high profile case. What's noteworthy as well is that US based PriceWaterhouseCoopers is the accountant of Gazprom,a company where it's more or less proven the books are so cooked it'd make Ken Lay envious. (see Itera,a Florida based company. Russian managers transferred over 18 billion cubic meters of gas reserves to it. Went from zero to Chevron-Texaco weight class in 5 years). Interestingly, now the Moscow Times reports that all lawsuits against PwC have been thrown out of court, but apparently there's an appeal in the works. Additionally, here's some extra material on the battle for Gazprom on Moscow Times.
Late addition: an interview with Igor Makarov, founder and president of the Itera Group.
Say hello to Vladimir

www.president.kremlin.ru/. Nice looking site,too bad it's all in russian.
Seville Summit, results and lack thereof

Hum. This came out somewhat more incoherent than I hoped, but then again, I'm not one to compose particularly fluent prose in English at my best and brightest (definitely not now) either. Find any substantial errors? Comment on them and I'll try to polish this later.

Now that the Seville summit has ended, it's time to take a look at what decisions were made, where new ground was prepared for some events happening between now and the next summit, and which ones were postponed or downright abandoned.
First and foremost,the most visible item on the agenda: Immigration,specifically illegal immigrants. The issue was tabled publicly roughly a month ago by Tony Blair and Jose Maria Aznar, and as Spain holds the EU's presidency at the moment, they increased the visibility of the immigration issue. In the end the more aggressive version of UK and Spain (econ. sanctions on countries "which do not do enough to stem the flow of illegal immigrants") didnt quite make it through, with the most vocal opponents being France and Sweden,though both for different reasons. (In case of France, their relations with countries of northern africa and middle-east which would obviously be targeted. And in case of Sweden, more of an issue of principle. Or as Swedish prime minister Persson described the UK&Spain version: "Stupid".). On the whole there was a general agreement on tightening up policies, as well as harmonizing them across Europe:
- Dublin II Regulation. In force by December. In brief: The original EU entry country bears responsibility for deporting the illegal immigrants. Say,a Pakistani immigrant in Bristol who entered through Balkans via Italy: From UK-> Italy whose responsibility it would then be to deport the immigrant.
- Common standards on asylum seeking procedure by end of 2003.

On the positive side(?) was a heartwarmingly solid consensus on one thing: now is not the time to deal with agricultural subsidies , so the issue was pushed to the next summit in a rather typical fashion. Of course this will push the negotiations that much closer to the entry day of the new block of members (assuming EU gets that far. If it does,Poland for example is presumed to become a large recipient). The other consensus around the issue was the recipient states' unity in showing they're quite willing to demand just as much or more German money while proposing a subsidies lite™ version for the newcomers.

The chronically unstable stability pact

Exemptions,exceptions,"reinterpretations" would be the order of the day when it comes to the pact requiring EU member states to behave fiscally responsibly. After-summit fiscal hall of shame: Germany (1st prize.Not only were they the driving force behind the pact to begin with, they were also the first major to bend or break it publicly. And furthermore,got it muzzled too.Size has it's benefits.Check a few posts down), France who succesfully maneuvered through an "interpretation" of the pact (which demands for 3% deficit or less. French are apparently heading for 2.6% or so, and Chirac wants to cut taxes). And finally, Italy, though in their case it was about giving them 0.5% /GDP deficit envelope instead of the obligated balanced budget, for some room of maneuver (cutting corporate taxes and lower income income taxes).

Cyprus.Greece.Turkey.

Cyprus was also one of the issues lurking on the background, and may turn into a watershed event for EU's relations with Turkey. Officially Turkey is also one of the member candidates, but in essence it's more theory than practice. Basicly, Turkey's government is somewhat questionable from EU's point of view, with the military always lurking on the background, freedom of press questionable,and so forth. And then there's the Kurds which was a sore point a decade ago and looks likely to be one a decade from now. And finally, Turkey's economy has seen better days and it has 66 million people. While nobody's saying it aloud, current EU members arent too keen to take in a 66 million people (bigger than FR,UK,IT) banana republic,even if it turned into a model democracy tomorrow. Particularly with the Eastern Europe expansion already under work.

And then there's the other side of the political dimension of Cyprus accession: Greece. In short, Turkey threw a spanner in the works with EU defense by vetoing EU access to NATO airlift and intellegence assets unless it receives guarantees that the force wont be used "against Turkey's strategic and geographic interests". Well, Turkey got the guarantees. And now Greece wants the same from EU, and it's demands are holding up the whole project (An Archetypal backwoods veto. 10 million Greek holding up the agenda of the 375 million people EU). Add to that the facts that a) Cyprus is split between Greek and Turkish parts b) they're on a tight timetable with the negotiations or it may turn out the Turkish part of Cyprus gets left out in the cold. And in case it didnt already become obvious from the tit-for-tat nature of those "guarantees": ,Greece and Turkey dont particularly like each other, though their relations seem to be improving somewhat. As it happens,they're also neighbours and both in NATO. Lots of hardware and an old old grudge.

Sideshows,Byplays

The wrestling between a Gaullist "Union of States" and German "United States" vision of EU continued as before, this time producing a handful of proposals on a variety of public jobs,including a beefed up job for the president of the council of ministers (proposal is for a 5 year or so job for a former head of government, as sort of main agenda setter for the council,which is a forum of country government ministers). Not surprisingly, the agendasetting through a forum of governments is the proposal for the "union of states" people , in this case Chirac,Aznar and Blair. And on the other side stands in this case Romano Prodi who wants to form a kind of an inner cabinet from EU commission, and commission of course is traditionally the engine for a more federalist stance. One side calls the commission reorganization a power grab,and another preparation for expansion (And new members.And possibly new commissioners.). And the old Kissingerian question about the "phone number of Europe" still remains unanswered.
Seville summit. Terrorism Old World style.

5 bombings since Friday, ETA has claimed responsibility for all of them so far. 9 people have been wounded, one (a UK citizen) seriously. Seems like the hits were targeted at tourist resorts.
Also on the scene: The Anti-Globalist (We dont like economy. Economy is evil) traveling circus, though in smaller strength than expected. Up to 100 thousand protesters were expected, but only 20 thousand showed up. On the positive side, the demonstration was peaceful (one person arrested for breaking glass), something of a change from Genoa and Gothenburg.
(24.6.2002. CNN: Authorities say 20 thousand showed up, organisers says 100 thousand. Pick a number to your liking, I suppose).
It's official.Fiscal responsibility is out of fashion again

One of the byproducts of the Seville summit was to relax fiscal restraints imposed by the so called stability pact, this time for France. While on the surface it might seem it was France throwing it's weight around, the same thing actually happened with Germany before. Or in short form, vast majority of time, political expediency trumps common sense. In this case, it's about France "intellegently reinterpreting" (Oxymoron?) the stability pact to honour a campaign compromise to cut income tax.

In other news, Izvestiya among other Russian media outlets decries EU's "unconstructive response" to the Kaliningrad problem (which is to say, a Russian enclave trapped between Poland and Lithuania,both EU candidates, and thus cut off from Russian mainland). As for the stance of EU as it relates to Russia and economic issues,it could be best summed up by the old verse:"Whose bread I eat - his song must I sing". Or in other words, it's a secondary concern,given how Russia is turning more and more into an economic satellite of EU.

Saturday, June 22, 2002

Ireland & Referendums

And here we go again: Bertie Ahern says he is likely to call for another referendum on the Treaty of Nice this October or November. Presumably by that time the more controversial parts about EU defense plans included in the treaty (the so called rapid reaction corps) have been resolved, in form of some sort of guarantees by EU to the current non-aligned/neutral countries.
Let's end this one with a quote shamelessly pillaged from BBC. Pat Cox,an Irishman and speaker of the EU parliament:"Please give us the space to get on with our debate and stay out of our hair for a while". Until November,then. (well, or maybe not).
Seville summit. EU decisionmaking spat

Blair and Schröder came up with a proposal to extend majority voting to summits in order to avoid constant deadlocks. Predictably, the proposal didnt float around for very long before it came under fire from various quarters, mostly the smaller nations and equally unsurprisingly, France. In France's case the greatest stumbling block seems to be privatization of state owned industries (Electricite de France in particular), something of a political suicide to even attempt. That said, France's negative stance towards opening their energy market for competition has been causing some strife, particularly in view of EDF going on a purchasing spree in Europe and elsewhere.And of course,EDF is state-owned, so finding funding for acquisitions seems to be only a question of dipping into state coffers.

The Treaty of Rome established the qualified majority voting as the main decisionmaking mechanism in the EU council of ministers, but at the moment it is heavily biased in favor of smaller states. Of the total of 87 votes, 62 are needed to pass a proposal. For example, France,Germany,Italy and UK have 10 votes each, while making up 259 million out of EU's total population of some 377 million. In other words, roughly 69% of EU's population account for 46% of the votes. Or in terms of practical examples: the EU "sun belt" states of Portugal,Spain ,Italy and Greece form a blocking minority between themselves, and can in essence vote down all proposals cutting their own subsidies from the rest of the EU. Or in general the most heavily subsidized states can block EU proposals cutting aid to them with only minor haggling for a few extra votes (For the history buffs out there, read about Poland-Lithuania's Liberum Veto, and compare it to the situation nowadays. Beats Satire Wire any day, hands down).

Treaty of Nice was intended to overhaul EU institutions in preparation for EU enlargement towards eastern and central Europe, in essence to get rid of the worst problems created by the jumble of national vetos and individual countries' political pet projects from holding up the agenda of the whole union. Nice treaty added some 30 articles to the subjects under qualified majority voting,thus cutting down on the potential issues holding things up, though issues like taxation and social policies are still under vetos. Of course,by this time what was really happening was slowly sinking in around Europe as a result of a couple european court decisions and the treaty itself: 1) The supremacy of EU legislation 2) Council of ministers is in essence a cabinet of cabinets, so the veto rights are taken away from national governments. To sum it up, it enables "rest of the Europe" pass legislation and treaties over which "your government" may have no say. In addition, Treaty of Nice also allocated votes for member candidates,and more importantly,reallocated council votes and added additional controls (so called "double majority". In addition to a qualified majority of votes as well as majority of member states, the votes cast will need to represent 62% of EU population). The new vote count after new members are in would be 345.

As you can see, the population/vote is still by no means even, and Germany as usual gets stiffed by gaining the singular honor of paying the largest slice of the budget and getting smallest amount of voting power per population. Additionally, Ireland rejected the treaty in a referendum,throwing another spanner in the works (. End result is postponing the expansion,or at the very least complicating it,in addition to maintaining the wonderfully crippled mechanisms in use today.) That said, Danish rejection of the Maastricht treaty was worked around earlier (no mean feat either. Maastricht established EU in a real sense. Included issues like free movement of labor and goods and defined the track towards a single currency. As well as added security and foreign policy elements into the Union,though in an embryonic form.)
EU politics & Ireland.

Steve den Beste writes an excellent piece on EU political culture, like him, I find that case of treaty of Nice and Irish vote particularly fascinating. Seems like the concept of democracy is a bit fussy for the merry men in Brussels: Irish turn the treaty down in a referendum. What happens next? The commission in essence pronounces it was the wrong decision, and we'll ask as many times it takes until we hear what we want.

One thing den Beste doesnt mention is the rest of the argumentation,outside the old neutrality clause: namely how treaty of Nice would affect EU expansion,and what would happen to EU subsidies and structural funds directed to Ireland, and by extension their economy? Or as BBC puts it: "..but the treaty's opponents, including the Greens, the republican Sinn Fein, socialists and a number of religious groups, say Ireland will lose generous EU subsidies if new, poorer members are admitted. "
Between 1994 and 1999, EU fund transfers to Ireland equaled 3.5% of the GDP, though it dropped from 2000 onwards as Ireland reached cutoff levels for several types of funding. One thing to keep in mind when looking at the EU expansion hassle going on, those subsidies can be a big deal to currently poorer members, but if ,say, a Poland gets added it'll drag down wealth averages enough to put the aid out of reach of most current members. So Spain,Portugal,Greece,etc. are desperately fighting for their share of pork, the keyword would be "solidarity" which for them translates as : We want German and British industry to subsidize the newcomers but we dont want to give up our current benefits,even to the detriment of countries with one third the income level.
Walls of Fortress Europe..

European Union leaders meeting in Spain have agreed a crackdown against illegal immigration by the end of the year. Ironically, the media fuss and electoral success (what little of it there was) of the far right parties leveraged part of the agenda of those said parties into the mainstream. So now we have Blair's "third way" social democrats as well as Italian and Spanish conservatives adopting it.

Random thought: Wonder if the UK idea of imposing sanctions on countries where the illegal immigrants come from and France shooting it down just as quick had anything to do with the fact a big part of UK immigrants arrive via France.(see: Sangatte).
Lilek's Screed - A Sporadic Attempt to Disassemble the Indefensible

Definitely worth the time to read it through, nice satire.

Friday, June 21, 2002

Random Quote of the Day

"If there is ever another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned silly thing in the Balkans."
- Otto von Bismarck.aka the Iron Chancellor. 1815-1898.
Seville EU Summit

The proposal by UK,Spain and Italy to impose sanctions on countries which do not co-operate on asylum seekers was put off. Apparently the rather harsh version of penalising countries whose citizens try to get into EU was mostly turned down as a result of French pressure, along with Sweden and some others.
Aside from the minor defeat, construction project for Fortress Europe seems to be well under way. UK's Blair seemed to pull an U-turn on the initial proposal after one of his own cabinet ministers described the idea as "morally repugnant".More to follow as the summit proceeds.
Nuclear Security, Take two

A report from Australia: Turns out their only nuclear reactor (At Lucas Heights near Sydney) is located over a tectonic fault line. Or in simple terms, it's over an earthquake hazard zone, which may or may not turn out to be a real substantial risk depending largely on it's age and activity.

Thursday, June 20, 2002

An addendum to the previous post

Looks like the merry men in Brussels pulled off a remarkably creative move:
They resumed funding of Arafat's Palestinian Authority and they placed the Al-Aqsa Brigade which is associated with Arafat's Fatah on it's list of terrorist organizations.
EU Financial Aid & rant of the day.

Yet another of these days which make me wonder who the hell is actually making decisions on where my tax money ends up in: EU unblocks Palestinian aid, but demands tough accounting, says Ha'aretz. Knowing how strict standards EU maintains on it, no doubt the accounting will end up done by Andersen & Co, at least it should come cheap nowadays. Curiously enough commissioner Chris Patten himself admits it's impossible to know where the money goes in a tangle of corruption like the PA is nowadays. So the response seems to be: "Sure,part of it probably goes to fund the local Islamikazes. Tough luck. We don't mind,though, blewn up cafes are just local scenery."

Now.. if I had a tendency towards cynicism , I'd start wondering when EU will demand their new star candidate Czech Republic pay it's membership dues in form of PA's favourite Czech product: Semtex. For purposes of EU foreign aid only.
Steel Tariffs,Part II

Looks like the trade spat is winding down for a change. So far the exemptions count is at 107 different articles or so, which has seemed enough to mollify EU and Japan at least until it's becoming clear there wont be more. In keeping with the convoluted nature of international trade, among the benefactors: Rice growers in US in general, Citrus growers in Florida, US producers of ballpoint pens and pool tables(!),and so on. If there's a lesson to be had it would probably be that if you're slapping anyone with tariffs/sanctions, avoiding doing it in the middle of an election season would be a smart move ,say: The fact French had elections a couple months after the tariffs kicked in didnt help, and neither did the fact the election campaigns in Germany were ramping up. Made it politically doubly sensitive on both sides, up to the point of EU drafting a list of several dozen articles specifically designed to hit election districts sensitive to US republicans. Next on the agenda: Pork,Pork,Pork,Agricultural subsidies,Pork. On Both sides of the Atlantic this time , instead of just mostly EU.

Wednesday, June 19, 2002

EU & Iran, Part II

The Economist comments on the recent EU decision to open up trade negotiations with Iran. In real terms, the announcement comes down to rather little, with no actual changes in sight yet. Additionally, the international reaction has been muted, including the US (Then again, it's fairly certain the administration was kept up to date on what was happening). Finally,there seems to be some differences in reporting between The Economist: "...initial American reaction to the European decision to open talks has been muted.." and Financial Times: "European Union foreign ministers on Monday gave the green light to launching formal trade relations with Iran despite heavy pressure from the US and Israel, which lobbied hard to delay negotiations."

Tuesday, June 18, 2002

Planning two steps ahead

An article in The Jerusalem Post outlines one of the little talked-about problems concerning Iraq and what happens,say, if US is actually successful in capturing Saddam. Namely: What then? The basic problem is that removing one piece of the puzzle doesnt mean the rest just vanish, whether it's about the Ba'ath party,weapons research, or some such. And even if those were solved, weakening of Iraq as a state can lead to a lot of second order consequences, beginning with:
1) possible ethnic tensions: Kurds first and foremost, one of the biggest stateless people anywhere in the world
- Turkey has a large minority of Kurds, who've engaged in more or less militant separatism over the years. One reason why they will automatically become an issue should Turkey be used as either a launch pad and logistics base for the campaign or participate as an active combatant. And northern Iraq which would then become an invasion corridor is largely populated by Kurds.
2) Shi'ia - Sunni conflicts in the south-east. (And let's not forget, Iran is a Shi'ite country right next door).
In Local News..

Russia is planning to construct a new oil terminal on the Gulf of Finland. Among the local objections raised are increased accident risk (the traffic on the gulf is dense already, with the oil exports adding to it even more) and other environmental concerns. Another sign of the times was referred to by the local MP: involvement of US companies in upgrading Russian oil export infrastructure. Considering the situation in Middle East, diversifying in sources for energy needs sounds like a solid strategy. Currently, EU buys roughly 60% of Russian gas exports,and over half of it's oil exports, which accounts for roughly 16% of EU's total oil consumption, and 20% of gas.
So far majority of investment in Russian oil infrastructure has concentrated on pipelines and export ports to Europe, though projects concerning export capacity on the Russian pacific coast surface regularly, mostly in form of suggestions for pipelines from Siberian oilfields, to serve both Japanese and US energy market as well as the fast expanding Chinese energy needs.
EU - Iran links

EU foreign ministers gave green light to opening trade negotiations with Iran. US and Israel lobby to delay the actual negotiations. Other things to consider would be the US Iran-Libya Sanctions Act and it's implications on the negotiations (As well as possible EU counterlegislation, as with the other similar case, the Libertad act (Helms-Burton)). Seems like loading the next WTO round with maximum amount of explosive material is well on the way on both sides of the Atlantic. Between steel tariffs,agricultural subsidies and now this, messieurs Lamy and Zoellick have their work cut for them. And obviously,this in addition to the war on terror.

Monday, June 17, 2002

Gulf War byproducts

Fine irony here. A Washington Post report about possible Israeli submarine nuclear launch capability. Now.. on 30th Nov 1990, Israel cancels the submarine project due to budget constraints. This would be rougly 2 months before the Gulf War.
During the war it turned out some German companies had been involved in Iraqi scud missile projects (scuds striking Tel Aviv among other places during the war), and so as a way of apology and a thank you to the Israelis, German government built them two of those subs for free. (Normally they'd be roughly 300-400 million USD a piece), later on adding the third on a 50/50 cost sharing basis.

So, in a roundabout way, it would appear Saddam did his own bit in helping the Israelis acquire a second strike capacity against possible nuclear attacks on Israel (by Iraq,among others).

Sunday, June 16, 2002

Quoteworthy commentary,part I

...of European Anxiety "to keep NATO just as it used to be, European Security and Defense Policy as it was to be, and America as it no longer wants to be."
More on the topic at IHT
Soviet Smallpox weaponization:

A Washington Post article on the Soviet smallpox incidents describes well the risks inherent in attempting to weaponize that particular virus. In short, they're hypothesizing a research vessel on the Aral Sea got too close to the Resurrection Island bioweapons test site, and one person on the vessel contracted the disease. Presumably the vessel came within 15km (or 10 miles) of the site at worst. Another snippet to pay attention to is the amount of smallpox claimed to be on the island at that time: 400 grams.
Basicly, if that sort of thing can happen in a program run by a state with considerable scientific expertise, what are the odds of random untrained people with a biowar cookbook pulling it off without killing themselves and causing an epidemic in the region?
As an aside, this would be the second more public bioweapons incident in Soviet Union/Russia (The other being the Sverdlovsk anthrax case). And no doubt more could be found should someone get access to Soviet era archives.
Defense expenditure stat blurb

United States 276.7 billion USD. European Union 165.7 billion. Japan 43 billion. China 12.6 billion (Thought to be much higher). India 13.2 billion.
Whole world roughly 750 billion. And finally: the so called Axis of Evil at 12.9 billion,with Iraq and Cuba unknown. Possibly in the 20B range in total.
Figures are based on CIA world factbook, and are not based on same year (basicly just to give the general idea).
On the so called EU defense..

One thing changed,this time it wasnt Greece and/or Turkey holding up the process with squabbling about EU access to NATO assets (Turkey being outside EU but within NATO has used the issue as a leverage in it's negotiations with EU, concerning possible membership and such). Basicly, the trouble with fitting in former neutrals into the defense policy is on the agenda once more, in addition to the problems with NATO/EU overlaps. The issue should be in the news more as the Seville summit on June 21-22 approaches.
EU funding,part n+1
In a yet another wholly unsurprising development, EU commissioner Chris Patten recommends continuing to fund the palestinian authority. Among other developments on the issue is the lawsuit filed in Tel Aviv on behalf of the Blumberg family , demanding compensation/damages from the EU for funding palestinian terrorism. So far,the issue has not crossed the news threshold in here.
Remains to be seen whether the lawsuit will end up having anything more than symbolic importance (as in,even if EU was found guilty, it's another matter altogether to actually enforce the ruling).
Today's Catch
Sounds like bad old days. A Russian "trawler" bumbled inside Argentinian territorial waters and refused to show it's catch when requested by a coast guard vessel. Makes me wonder if it was the sort of trawler which always find their catch somewhere in the vicinity of US carrier task forces,NATO naval exercises and such. The second item of curiosity would be that if the trawler was of the sort mostly catching radio transmissions... well,what was it doing in Argentina?
New day, old tricks.
Hagen Schulze elaborates on the essence of nations and how they came about. Interesting bit of history ,one of those processes which defined a large part of the world as it is today. Also reads like a Despots' Hall of Fame, strong rulers had their lot to play in both good and bad.

Could be educating to see where the countries with strong national identities are located. I'd wager it's still mostly Europe and North America (Though Japan and China definitely belong to the same block.). And conversely where nationalism isnt a force, and what it leads to. Say, stability in countries with large tribal populations (or old fashioned clans,Somalia style), or rather , absence of stability.