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Reader mail from Israel

Arutz Sheva News Service

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2002 / MarCheshvan 24, 5763

6. FINLAND REFUSES
Finland refuses to sell to Israel what are considered to be the best
gas-detection kits in the world, despite widespread evaluations that Iraq
may attack Israel with poison chemical weapons. The computerized kits
accurately identify chemical warfare materials, but Finland claims that the
European Union forbids the export of dual-use equipment to countries in
conflict.

An email response sent in the name of Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki
Tuomioja explains that Finland did agree to sell Israel "thousands of gas
masks" - of which Israel already has a sufficient amount. On another
occasion, however, Tuomioja delivered a speech in which he said that he is
"appalled at the Israeli policy of suppression, humiliation, subordination
and impoverishment towards the Palestinians..." Tuomioja's e-mail address,
not as reported yesterday, is Erkki.Tuomioja@formin.fi .

Thank you a lot

>
Something that completely took me by surprise. I suppose starting from the fact the sort of equipment is manufactured here to begin with. What comes to the foreign minister Tuomioja, I'm not surprised in the least. He's nothing if not consistent with the stance towards Israel. I suppose goes with the territory (Sort of stuck in the 60's flower power style. Gives me the impression of him being the sort of person who turns out the lights in the room by closing his eyes.). Well, let's just say I can live with us not selling munitions, but this is beyond pale. For chrissakes, it's chemical weapons detection kits. As for that palestinian reference..I have to admit I don't quite follow his logic. How is that exactly going to help palestinians if Israeli civilians die from CW-loaded Scuds as a result? And just what makes him think Israeli would be the only people affected if it happens (seeing as how Israel is a country roughly the size of a stamp, and Scuds being what they are need a lucky shot to hit it to begin with.)

Only other web reference I found to it was from a translated Yediot Ahronot article.

As I recall, that's not the only time in recent memory where the issue has been raised, here's a Helsingin Sanomat article on a planned purchase of Spike missiles (developed by Rafael of Israel) which was put on hold. Among the most vocal opponents were Tuomioja (again) and the junior minister of finance Siimes (of Left Alliance. Surprisingly enough).

Update:
Helsingin Sanomat comments.

Update II
The equipment in question: Environics chempro 100.

Update III
Helsingin Sanomat offers further comments. Looks like trade policy is an issue as well in the decisions. Namely Israel has bought some technology samples before, but never actually placed a larger order. Or as the HS quote goes:
"..In some respects, the whole issue is a trade policy one, with scant political overtones. Israel has previously obtained sample units of gas detectors from Finland, but this has never lead to any purchases. By this Vilén seems to be hinting at the Israeli Army's possibly copying the technical solutions of the Finnish products for their own applications."
And Vilen would be the foreign trade minister (no, not a social democrat or left alliance. National coalition this time, a conservative). The article also notes nothing in EU regulations says the equipment could not be exported to Israel. And I suppose it's also noteworthy the lot in question was just two units.

Fun and Games: European Commision slaps Nintendo with a €150 million fine

About price fixing, it appears. Nintendo limited crossborder competition within EU by preventing crossborder sales and competition among Nintendo distributors. European sales of Gameboy hardware and games was €850 million, out of a global total of 3 billion.
-FT

Brazil: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins.

Interestingly, the closer Lula and his party have been to getting elected , the more he has drifted towards the centre. Starting to sound more like a European social democrat than some real "red blooded" worker's party. He will be facing his big test soon enough, when it's time to get back to talking with the IMF. And of course, Lula's election has been causing jitters on the markets before, so he will need to be especially careful with his policies.

Non-news of the day: Japan banking reform is going nowhere

420$ billion of bad loans, says IHT. And apparently very little intention of doing anything about it.

Keep your hands off my pork

A compromise of sorts was reached between France and Germany on EU agricultural subsidies, in essence sticking with the current plan until 2006 and freezing the spending levels there until 2013 (adjusted for inflation,however). Of course it still has to pass at the next summit, but having the backing of those two countries pushes any initiative a long way already, not to mention it eases some worries about CAP stalling the enlargement negotiations now and breaking the bank later. And of course, Chirac and the French covered the backside of their cherished farming lobby. Of course, CAP is only a part of the EU budget, though a large one. Next up: structural funds, funds to prop up the new member countries' economies in the first few years of EU membership,et cetera,et cetera.

EU names Oswaldo Payá Sardiñas the winner of this year's Sakharov prize

Paya is the coordinator of the Varela Project in Cuba, a referendum initiative seeking changes in the Cuban political system. And Sakharov Prize in turn is awarded annually by the European Parliament and gets it's name from former Soviet dissident,nuclear physicist and Nobel peace prize winner Andrei Sakharov. -The Miami Herald

Interesting to see how Cuba reacts, particularly whether they grant him a visa to attend the awarding ceremony in Strasbourg. The invitation to Paya is from the EU, of course.

Moscow: 30-50 Chechens hold hundreds hostage.

700 people estimated to be held hostage inside a Moscow theater.
ABC: One hostage shot.
The Moscow Times: "The gunmen were laying mines in the theater, according to relatives of those trapped inside. Spectators were allowed to use their cellphones to call their families for a few hours after the gunmen seized the theater at 9 p.m."
Sydney Morning Herald offers a timeline of the Chechnya conflict.
ABC: Putin cancels APEC summit trip.

Update

The standoff ended with a bang, with the executions of the hostages forcing Russia's hand. Interesting tactics, as well, if high risk. Stun gas doesn't discriminate, and as it turned out, what knocks out most people will be very dangerous to some. Judging by the timing the approach was planned beforehand, seems unlikely sedative gas would be everyday equipment. Still, so far 30 explosive devices found, and they didn't go off, which is a pretty remarkable achievement. Even if the price was high.
Remains to be seen what the impact will be on Chechnya, particularly in terms of media and public opinion. It is,after all, pretty much proven people affiliated with Al Qaeda and the former Afghan mujahedin (from the Afghan-Soviet war) operate in there.

Update 2

Interfax:
"When gas seeped into the theater after the terrorists killed the first hostages, I saw that one of the terrorists, who sat on the stage, jumped up and tried to put on a respirator. He made several convulsive moves, trying to pull the mask over his face, and fell"
BBC: Maybe aerosolized Valium, maybe BZ (a hallucinogenic agent), maybe some unknown psychedelic agent.
BBC: "Mr Felhengauer said it took the special forces over an hour to get all the hostages out of the building, and that the antidote was used too late to prevent the after-effects.
He also did not rule out that the special forces - who administered the antidote - simply did not have enough of the preparation".
CNN: Nerve agent link to hostage deaths.
To sum up: With the razor thin margins for error in the situation, the Russians seemed to have gone for something significantly more powerful than the standard calmative agents, and hoped the antidote (just one reference to it?) would save most. Hard to say what exactly happened, but it does seem pretty clear an agent capable of knocking out people that fast as some significant effects on central nervous system. Also noteworthy would be the fact Russians so far have not identified the agent used.

Update 3
Washington Post: All but one of the 117 dead hostages were killed by the gas used. About 650 hostages were released, some 200 of them still in critical condition.

Random thought of the day: Post WW2 Japan, possible Iraq occupation comparisons

In short, does it make any sense? To sum up, Japan had an effective state administration and a distinctively first world economy (the sort which could wage war against a collection of regional powers and U.S. for years). Is there anything even remotely resembling the Japanese bureucracy/administration McArthur utilized present in Iraq? Or for that matter, ethnic divisions. Japan was and still is ethnically remarkable homogenic, which can't be said about Iraq (Say, the split between Sunni and Shi'a muslims, arabs and kurds,etc.)
That particular comparison sounds like trying to make the lame run and the blind see, yes? (Arguments to the contrary are welcome, if someone can educate me. I am curious).

Freedom of Speech vs. Hate Speech: Houellebecq Acquitted

Says the Guardian. Next up, Oriana Fallaci for her "Rage and Pride".

Reason magazine provides some more background on the topic. Interestingly, Houellebecq's book Platform ends up with a depiction of a bombing of a Southeast Asian tourist trap. Slanderous blasphemy, that.

Reason notes that "If anything, blasphemy in the west is more difficult than it should be.", and of course could become even more so with the proliferating legislation dealing with hate speech and incitement (which leads to the usual question: Just how much is enough? And how much is too much.And finally, how is the same legislation implemented in the case of ,say, market sales of Protocols of the Elders of Zion as opposed to Fallaci's Rage and Pride?)

Russia, Makeup of military budget

According to The Moscow Times/AP , Russia declassified the makeup of it's defense budget for the first time on Friday. About 11 billion $, looks like. For comparison, U.S. military budget would be in the 350 billion neighbourhood, and countries like France,Japan and UK each put in roughly 40 billion. In raw dollar terms, Russia's military spending is roughly on level with Israel and South Korea

Ireland, Referendums

Well, turned out to be a yes vote. Next on agenda, how the Dutch caretaker government views EU expansion,and what effect it will have on the plans for the Copenhagen summit in December. That's keeping in mind the last bit in the news was the EU commission report, and the actual decisions on the expansion will be made at the summit. Among other things that'll be making the news will be the usual suspects: Funding feuds, agricultural subsidies, repartitioning the budget pie in preparation for the expansion, some more agricultural subsidies.

Back to reality with it in any case, Ireland's referendum result removed one obstacle, but with the way the expansion project carries a lot of extra political baggage (say, Germany using it as a lever to reform the CAP, or the funding in general) due to various national agendas it's by no means a done deal. Expect a lot of vigorous protests from the Mediterranean countries who'll be busy trying to retain a share of the EU structural funds and subsidies.

Steve den Beste,Apple,Religion

A highly entertaining article by SdB about blind faith,macs, Altivec (peace be upon it's name), powerPC 970.

North Korea. Nuclear weapons. Regional effect.

N. Korea Admits Having Secret Nuclear Arms. -Washington Post.
Opportunity, Peril Seen in N.Korea Nuclear Admission. -ABC news/Reuters.

In the second part of North Korean show-and-tell: Nuclear weapons programme. On the whole, the information in itself was not so much of a surprise compared to the fact they actually admitted the existence of the programme (keeping in mind there's been various evidence displayed to support the view that they do have one before. Didn't stop them from stonewalling it, regardless of the evidence), particularly when it's coming not long after the admission about the kidnapped Japanese citizens during Koizumi's diplomatic trip there. As it is, the official commentary from the region seems to be fairly laid back so far:

"The government is paying close attention to this frank confirmation of nuclear suspicions during special envoy Kelly's visit to North Korea and we regard it as a sign North Korea is willing to resolve this problem through dialogue," Yim (Sung-joon, a SK presidential adviser on national security and foreign policy) said.
Or
"There will be no change to the normalization talks due to start on October 29," Prime Minister Koizumi told reporters. "We want to ask North Korea to deal with this sincerely and get rid of the nuclear suspicions."

One theory would be that NK is coming clean bit by bit after reaching the conclusion that with the state their economy is in they absolutely must open up some, and to make it work it requires somewhat working relationship with both SK and Japan, and the recent admissions are one way of showing they're ready to make concessions on it. Among other tidbits concerning the economy theory would be their recent relaxation of grain price controls (July 27th - Aug 2nd number of The Economist) and the capitalistic enclave experiment (which led to some of the more bizarre bits of news, with it's Chinese director getting arrested.) , both of which would qualify as tentative movements to experiment with the China model.

The simplest theory would be the evidence displayed was unequivocal, and the admission is just damage control (not to mention publicity control. It's still preferable to appear tocome out clean on your own and pretend like you just might be starting a trend instead of having U.S do it for you and end up even deeper in the pariah-land than before), and the nuclear programme represents their biggest bargaining chip in extorting concessions from their neighbours. In any case, with SK having presidential elections in 2 months, it is certain to have some impact on their southern neighbour, and it just might turn out to be something similar than in the case of the kidnappings (ie. popular anger). And finally, the NK stance could be "just" one kind of a hedge in the "Husseinite" style: if you happen to be an international pariah, the only way to avoid being pushed around by U.S is to raise bets with weapons of mass destruction.

That didn't take long..

Parliament to ponder supervision of internet

As it happens, work on a constitutional amendment to the freedom of speech act is underway in the parliament (and was, before the bombing and the following discoveries about the role the net played in obtaining information for bomb construction), and one of the main topics of the work even before last weekend was the effect of internet on publishing. Consequently, the treatment of internet publications of any kind significantly raised it's profile, including who should be held accountable for internet publications and how.

To quote one member of the parliament: "However, I hope that a momentary situation is not taken advantage of in a way that would limit some fundamental rights".
Agreed. Though how exactly those rights intersect with interests of public security is an issue deserving active debate.

Fraud of the Year: Think Big

Amazing creativity:
"IF YOU must tell lies, tell very big ones. Last week a gang in Johannesburg were caught telling a whopper: they were masquerading as South Africa's central bank. "

-The Economist

Mall Explosion, more investigation results

Turns out the bomber had experimented with his creations before, at least according to some postings by him on the net (With HMTD). If that turns out to be correct, he was somewhat more skilled than initially assumed (HMTD is sensitive to heat,friction,shock,etc. and apparently somewhat complicated to manufacture). According to the police, HMTD highly likely was not used in the mall bombing, however (mostly due to the shock sensitivity.). HMX would be the candidate of similar explosives, according to Helsingin Sanomat (in finnish),being simpler to manufacture and handle.

Finally, police have detained several people in connection to the bombing, and as of tuesday morning one was still arrested. (Helsingin Sanomat). Police also stressed (again) they believe Gerdt acted alone.

Update 17.10.2002

"Police hold 17-year-old message board enthusiast in Myyrmäki bombing case" -Helsingin Sanomat. And the 17-yr old would be the administrator of a "Home Chemistry Forum" on the net, and one where the bomber Petri Gerdt was a frequent contributor.

Update 18.10.2002

Helsingin Sanomat: "On Thursday Finland's central criminal police, the National Bureau of Investigation, released a 17-year-old schoolboy they had been holding in connection with the bombing of the Myyrmanni shopping mall in Vantaa last Friday. The police say that the boy, a resident of Hämeenlinna, is not a suspect of any crime in connection with the bombing.". And yet some more evidence pointing in the direction Petri Gerdt planned and carried out the bombing by himself.

Local news: Explosion at a mall in Helsinki suburbs

Helsingin Sanomat: So far six fatalities and upwards of 50 injured. Initial reports indicated gas cylinders may have been the cause. However, it was later noted that there are are no static gas systems of any kind nor should there have been anything near the amount required for an explosion of that magnitude in the building (if at all). The technical director of the mall also noted there should not be anything explosive in the technical systems of the building. And finally, part of the roof of the building (made of glass) caved in, and added to the shower of debris and injuries.And yes, police have not ruled out the possibility of a bomb. More on it later as more information is published.

Update 12.10.2002 19:35
Helsingin Sanomat: Death toll rises to 7, bomb confirmed as the cause of the explosion.Some of the injuries were caused by pellets in the bomb (ball bearings,shotgun pellets?). Based on the initial evidence, the main suspect is a ~20 year old Finnish student who died in the explosion (ethnicity unspecified as of yet. Apparently local.) Among the few tidbits noted was that he had no previous criminal record. Or as the prime minister put it : "It was an act of terror," Lipponen told Finnish media. "It is too early to say whether it was a terrorist organisation or a single person acting."

Update 12.10.2002 23:45
The bomber appears to be a 19 year old Finnish student from Vantaa (nearby Helsinki. Same town than where the mall is located). Police found bombmaking equipment and instructions downloaded from net from his apartment. The motive for the attack is still unknown. From CNN: "Politics was not believed to be a motive, journalist Mika Makelainen told CNN, and the student was believed to have been suffering mental problems"

Update 13.10.2002 23:00
The bomber was identified in public (In Helsingin Sanomat ,in finnish). One Petri Gerdt. An ethnic finn, says AP report. So far nothing hinting at involvement of other people has been found.


And as a sidenote, since Glenn at instapundit wondered about it, the last explosion (a remote controlled car bomb) in Helsinki turned out to be an assassination (second attempt against the victim, who also had a track record of drug related conviction and some violent crime ones).

Quote of the day. On the joys of European intelligence cooperation

"They are hard-ass orators when the Americans want to move on the Taliban or Saddam. But when it comes to cracking down on radical leaders in Londonistan, they do nothing for fear of Islamist retaliation."
- A senior French anti-terrorism official on the British. -Time

Steel Tariffs,EU & US. Again

And the negotiations continue.And like before, it's like pulling teeth. The current status is that a little over half of EU steel exports into US is exempt from the tariffs, and more are expected (after the elections at least). Also, WTO is expected to rule on them in March 2003.
"The interests of our steel industry are very much focused on future exemptions," (EU trade commissioner) Lamy said.

-www.sunspot.net (AP wire)

Animal liberation, local style

20 thousand fur foxes & minks poisoned. Turns out the symptoms suggest botox.
Or as local daily Helsingin Sanomat puts it:
"The symptoms shown by the foxes suggest botulin poisoning, because the poison involved affects the central nervous system, which paralyses the muscles, and causes a rapid death"

Final confirmation on whether it was botox should arrive by thursday. Remains to be seen.

Update: Helsingin Sanomat. It was botox, indeed. The open question would be whether it was a case of accidentally contaminated feed or purposefully introduced. Most likely the former.

US - Russia oil summit in Houston

Bringing some results, looks like, as well: "The U.S. Export-Import Bank said Tuesday it would sign a $100 million agreement with the oil majors to provide medium- and long-term loans to buy U.S. equipment and services for exploring, refining and marketing.". Apparently for Lukoil,Yukos and Sibneft on the Russian side. Other topics included the usual what you'd expect from a trade meet, ramping up trade, looking up for some energy security, and so forth. Nothing on the Russian oil tycoons' wish for "reasonable assurances" that their investment in Iraq won't go to waste with the presumable US installed government in Iraq refusing to honor it's debts to Russia, however.

-The Moscow Times