Nordic musings

2002-11-17T15:53:00.000+02:00

No Right To A Name?

Bill Wyman, music writer for Atlanta Journal-Constitution, meet Bill Wyman, former Rolling Stones bassist.

"Wyman, a music writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, was recently notified of legal action against him for having the same name as a former Rolling Stones bassist. ", says Austin American Statesman. The problem stems from the confusion caused by Bill Wyman covering the Rolling Stones tours. To add insult to injury, Bill Wyman the bassist was born as William George Perks, and later changed his name.

2002-11-17T12:23:00.000+02:00

Meanwhile on the "Homegrown Nut" front

Local daily Helsingin Sanomat reports (in finnish) that a Finnish and a Swedish "activist" have been arrested in Plymouth (Devonport Naval Base) for slipping into the British nuclear sub HMS Vanguard. The pair were found in the base during Fri-Sat night. Apparently the sub is undergoing a refit, and it's in a drydock right now.

Here's what BBC has to say about it.

2002-11-16T20:27:00.000+02:00

Iran. Student Protests

Still continuing as before, with a class boycott this time. The judiciary is hitting back in the Aghajari case as well, at least according to IRNA. On the legislative reform front, the Guardian Council has rejected the bill passed by the parliament mandating political and press-related trials to be held openly and in front of a jury. If the Majlis refuses to amend the bill, it'll head to the Expediency Council next, and they've consistently sided with the conservatives. Also in the works: the bill to boost the presidency's power , particularly against the Guardian council. The parliament approved the draft bill. The Guardian Council is highly likely to reject it, of course, but it will bring the issue into focus once more.

So far the protests have been peaceful. Hopefully that trend continues (Why? Two words: Tiananmen Square. Determined Guardian Council backed by Basij/Revolutionary Guards just might decide to crush the protest, if it seems to be spreading wider. Seems like the reform movement hasn't gained enough traction just yet on a grassroots level.)

2002-11-15T08:55:00.000+02:00

On Nordic/Scandinavian Economy

Details the current environment and some trends. The link was lifted from Bjørn Stærk.

2002-11-14T21:05:00.000+02:00

Deutsche Telekom

Hemorrhaging a wee bit. Bled red ink to the tune of € 24.5 billion last year. The current debt load of the company is about 64 billion € (about the same in USD, at today's rates. Give or take a billion or two.)

2002-11-14T16:39:00.000+02:00

Ad free day

Got the new Opera 7 Beta browser and piped the traffic through Proxomitron. Opera nails popups, proxomitron the rest. Just the fact you can turn off Macromedia Flash markedly improves the browsing experience (none of those noisy animated ads,screen hijackers,interstitials,etc.). And proxomitron does a remarkably good job of killing banner ads and such (to the tune of 90% or so). Nice.

2002-11-14T09:00:00.000+02:00

The Economist on the Doha round

Not looking good, according to the article. And not suprisingly, looks like it'll be agriculture that'll sink it. Incidentally, it's only about a month since EU ruled there won't be any major changes to the CAP before 2006.

2002-11-13T04:22:00.000+02:00

More on the Chemical Detectors and Israel

From Jerusalem Post:
"Finland refuses Israel gas-detector kits fearing technology theft"

I suppose much the same as the commentary from local papers implied when the refusal broke the news originally. Exported twice before, two units each time, now they wanted a third round of two unit technology demonstrator orders, and it was nixed. No commercial orders as of yet. The reference to EU regulations seems like a smoke screen, like before, at least the analysis quoted in the original Helsingin Sanomat article noted the said regulations didn't ban the export. As for the rest of the article, the arguments are much the same, including how it hurts Israel's chemical defense etc. I suppose if they got their two units, say, one in Jerusalem another in Tel Aviv, things would be better? (The license request still was for two units. And that's all IDF apparently ever wanted).

2002-11-12T02:59:00.000+02:00

On Turkey,AKP,etc.

An excellent piece in the The New Yorker.

2002-11-11T16:05:00.000+02:00

Sweden Expels 2 Russian Diplomats

CNN:
Sweden expels two Russian diplomats in connection with the Ericsson industrial espionage case. Apparently the evidence is fearly clear cut, seeing as how one of the Ericsson employees was "detained as he met a foreign intelligence officer". Also noteworthy would be the charges filed, for serious espionage, which under local law means the case has to have national security implications.
Aside from network technology, Ericsson also works on military projects like radar technology, missile guidance systems,etc. A company source said the leaked information "appeared not to be connected" to military projects.

On plus side, it's been over a year now since someone was last detained in Sweden for industrial espionage. Heh heh. Of course in that last case Russian involvement was suspected as well, though it didn't result in anything much, for lack of evidence. And to top it off, there'll be a EU-Russia summit starting today, so they'll probably get to talk to Vladimir P. the former KGB/FSB officer about Russian espionage soon enough.

2002-11-08T21:01:00.000+02:00

Meanwhile in Chechnya

Reuters:
"Masked men in military fatigues blew up the family home of one of 50 Chechen rebels killed after they seized a Moscow theater and held hundreds of people hostage last month, Russian media said on Friday."

No official word on who it was (as for unofficial, Russian soldiers seem a good enough guess, surprisingly enough).

2002-11-08T03:19:00.000+02:00

A Notice:

John & Antonio's "Iberian notes" has moved. New addy would be this. Interesting swap in the sense they're one of the few who switched for blogger after something else, instead the usual graduation from blogger to MT. In any case, it's definitely worth a look, the writing's good and not a lot of weblogs cover Spain. Now.. I wonder if they'll comment on the Gibraltar referendum. Could be interesting to see the local take in Spain, especially with headlines like these "Spain calls Gibraltar referendum illegal and worthless". Sounds like some reality distortion field is hovering around Madrid, they seem to be hellbent on assimilating Gibraltar against the wishes of the inhabitants.

2002-11-06T22:17:00.000+02:00

Smallpox stockpiles

Russia,North Korea,Iraq.... France? Of course the report notes the French stockpile is believed to be small and for defensive purposes, should there ever be an outbreak.
The more conspiratorially oriented should go check Slate which speculates on the timing of the leak and other things (highly convenient, with the way the French "defenders of the international law" are working at the UN security council,etc.). Myself, if I had to speculate I'd be very surprised if US hasn't known of it for a long time, but has chosen to remain silent until now when someone figured it'd be great entertainment to leak it to the press. Hard to say, but an amusing thought neverthless.

And here's the original Washington Post article which is longer and more detailed.

2002-11-06T21:31:00.000+02:00

Arms deals, part n+1

An interesting article in Ha'aretz about sales of military communications equipment to Finland. If I had to make a bet, the deal was sold as "Danish equipment" in here, in keeping with the head-in-sand tradition of local arms trade. (Not to mention I didn't find anything in the local media on it, yet).
Rank hypocricy, in short, but if it keeps foreign minister Tuomioja quiet, I'm all for it (there's one fellow who shouldn't be allowed to touch anything dealing with middle-east, anyway. Like a walking definition of "bias". Thankfully it won't be long before it's election time in here. Hopefully he ends up in some suitably irrelevant job.) The deal itself is not any kind of surprise, given the prevalence of Israeli equipment in the local armed forces (recon drones,anti-tank missiles, comm equipment,etc.)

2002-11-06T18:38:00.000+02:00

Information security: Back to basics

Interesting tidbit of news on The Register. In short, HP wireless keyboards have a bit too powerful transmitter. To the tune of one person's typing appearing on another's comp some 150 meters and two walls away.

2002-11-03T02:01:00.000+02:00

Elections in Turkey: AKP gaining

Erdogan's Justice and Development party (AKP) posting a strong showing, Kemal Dervis' doing ok likewise. If the results are anything remotely resembling what the polls say, Justice and Development party should come in first but still short of absolute majority , which means they'll be looking for coalition partners. So far the most popular candidate for that would be Dervis' Republican People's Party. Would make for an intriguing combination, a moderate Islamic party (they're only half joking when they call it muslim democrats. Patterned after conservative christian democrat parties in Europe. But just how moderate or strict they turn out to be remains to be seen) with Dervis & Co (Dervis being Turkey's Mr. Economy, a candidate with good reputation in the west) -Deutsche Welle and others.

2002-11-02T01:15:00.000+02:00

Greece pulls an Enron, restates figures

So called harmonization in action, in this case calculating the Greek figures according to the eurostat guidelines. The surpluses from 2000 onwards turned into deficits, the debt level went from 100% of GDP to 107% of GDP, a decent enough €10.3 billion "rounding error". Whoopsie.
Or as Greek paper Ekathimerini puts it: "Hidden debt eats up fake fiscal figures"
More commentary. What's noteworthy is that Greece isn't probably the only country with cooked books according to the commentary (just the most blatant example).

2002-11-02T00:50:00.000+02:00

Joschka Fischer: No Turkey in EU

An editorial from Washington Times: "Yesterday, in a press breakfast at the German Embassy, Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer compared the likelihood of Turkey's admission into the EU with Mexico and Central America's admission into the United States." Or if the German foreign minister has anything to do with it, Turkey will not be offered the negotiation date.
As for United States' wish to have Turkey included, Fischer put it this way: "..foreign minister suggested that, while friends do many things for each other, getting married to a third party because a friend requests it is not one of them."
An interesting read. Remains to be seen if that actually get published in Europe. Or anywhere else than Washington Times, for that matter.

2002-10-31T15:55:00.000+02:00

Forbes.com CEO Halloween masks

Ever wanted to scare your CFO? Spook the accountant next door? Forbes.com is offering ready-to-print CEO halloween mask patterns. The visitors get the choice between Bernard Ebbers, Ken Lay, Dennis Kozlowski,Martha Stewart and Samuel Waksal.

2002-10-30T21:42:00.000+02:00

Reader mail from Israel

Arutz Sheva News Service

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2002 / MarCheshvan 24, 5763

6. FINLAND REFUSES
Finland refuses to sell to Israel what are considered to be the best
gas-detection kits in the world, despite widespread evaluations that Iraq
may attack Israel with poison chemical weapons. The computerized kits
accurately identify chemical warfare materials, but Finland claims that the
European Union forbids the export of dual-use equipment to countries in
conflict.

An email response sent in the name of Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki
Tuomioja explains that Finland did agree to sell Israel "thousands of gas
masks" - of which Israel already has a sufficient amount. On another
occasion, however, Tuomioja delivered a speech in which he said that he is
"appalled at the Israeli policy of suppression, humiliation, subordination
and impoverishment towards the Palestinians..." Tuomioja's e-mail address,
not as reported yesterday, is Erkki.Tuomioja@formin.fi .

Thank you a lot

>
Something that completely took me by surprise. I suppose starting from the fact the sort of equipment is manufactured here to begin with. What comes to the foreign minister Tuomioja, I'm not surprised in the least. He's nothing if not consistent with the stance towards Israel. I suppose goes with the territory (Sort of stuck in the 60's flower power style. Gives me the impression of him being the sort of person who turns out the lights in the room by closing his eyes.). Well, let's just say I can live with us not selling munitions, but this is beyond pale. For chrissakes, it's chemical weapons detection kits. As for that palestinian reference..I have to admit I don't quite follow his logic. How is that exactly going to help palestinians if Israeli civilians die from CW-loaded Scuds as a result? And just what makes him think Israeli would be the only people affected if it happens (seeing as how Israel is a country roughly the size of a stamp, and Scuds being what they are need a lucky shot to hit it to begin with.)

Only other web reference I found to it was from a translated Yediot Ahronot article.

As I recall, that's not the only time in recent memory where the issue has been raised, here's a Helsingin Sanomat article on a planned purchase of Spike missiles (developed by Rafael of Israel) which was put on hold. Among the most vocal opponents were Tuomioja (again) and the junior minister of finance Siimes (of Left Alliance. Surprisingly enough).

Update:
Helsingin Sanomat comments.

Update II
The equipment in question: Environics chempro 100.

Update III
Helsingin Sanomat offers further comments. Looks like trade policy is an issue as well in the decisions. Namely Israel has bought some technology samples before, but never actually placed a larger order. Or as the HS quote goes:
"..In some respects, the whole issue is a trade policy one, with scant political overtones. Israel has previously obtained sample units of gas detectors from Finland, but this has never lead to any purchases. By this Vilén seems to be hinting at the Israeli Army's possibly copying the technical solutions of the Finnish products for their own applications."
And Vilen would be the foreign trade minister (no, not a social democrat or left alliance. National coalition this time, a conservative). The article also notes nothing in EU regulations says the equipment could not be exported to Israel. And I suppose it's also noteworthy the lot in question was just two units.

2002-10-30T19:23:00.000+02:00

Fun and Games: European Commision slaps Nintendo with a €150 million fine

About price fixing, it appears. Nintendo limited crossborder competition within EU by preventing crossborder sales and competition among Nintendo distributors. European sales of Gameboy hardware and games was €850 million, out of a global total of 3 billion.
-FT

2002-10-28T14:08:00.000+02:00

Brazil: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins.

Interestingly, the closer Lula and his party have been to getting elected , the more he has drifted towards the centre. Starting to sound more like a European social democrat than some real "red blooded" worker's party. He will be facing his big test soon enough, when it's time to get back to talking with the IMF. And of course, Lula's election has been causing jitters on the markets before, so he will need to be especially careful with his policies.

2002-10-28T13:55:00.000+02:00

Non-news of the day: Japan banking reform is going nowhere

420$ billion of bad loans, says IHT. And apparently very little intention of doing anything about it.

2002-10-24T22:35:00.000+03:00

Keep your hands off my pork

A compromise of sorts was reached between France and Germany on EU agricultural subsidies, in essence sticking with the current plan until 2006 and freezing the spending levels there until 2013 (adjusted for inflation,however). Of course it still has to pass at the next summit, but having the backing of those two countries pushes any initiative a long way already, not to mention it eases some worries about CAP stalling the enlargement negotiations now and breaking the bank later. And of course, Chirac and the French covered the backside of their cherished farming lobby. Of course, CAP is only a part of the EU budget, though a large one. Next up: structural funds, funds to prop up the new member countries' economies in the first few years of EU membership,et cetera,et cetera.

2002-10-24T18:54:00.000+03:00

EU names Oswaldo Payá Sardiñas the winner of this year's Sakharov prize

Paya is the coordinator of the Varela Project in Cuba, a referendum initiative seeking changes in the Cuban political system. And Sakharov Prize in turn is awarded annually by the European Parliament and gets it's name from former Soviet dissident,nuclear physicist and Nobel peace prize winner Andrei Sakharov. -The Miami Herald

Interesting to see how Cuba reacts, particularly whether they grant him a visa to attend the awarding ceremony in Strasbourg. The invitation to Paya is from the EU, of course.

2002-10-24T17:43:00.000+03:00

Moscow: 30-50 Chechens hold hundreds hostage.

700 people estimated to be held hostage inside a Moscow theater.
ABC: One hostage shot.
The Moscow Times: "The gunmen were laying mines in the theater, according to relatives of those trapped inside. Spectators were allowed to use their cellphones to call their families for a few hours after the gunmen seized the theater at 9 p.m."
Sydney Morning Herald offers a timeline of the Chechnya conflict.
ABC: Putin cancels APEC summit trip.

Update

The standoff ended with a bang, with the executions of the hostages forcing Russia's hand. Interesting tactics, as well, if high risk. Stun gas doesn't discriminate, and as it turned out, what knocks out most people will be very dangerous to some. Judging by the timing the approach was planned beforehand, seems unlikely sedative gas would be everyday equipment. Still, so far 30 explosive devices found, and they didn't go off, which is a pretty remarkable achievement. Even if the price was high.
Remains to be seen what the impact will be on Chechnya, particularly in terms of media and public opinion. It is,after all, pretty much proven people affiliated with Al Qaeda and the former Afghan mujahedin (from the Afghan-Soviet war) operate in there.

Update 2

Interfax:
"When gas seeped into the theater after the terrorists killed the first hostages, I saw that one of the terrorists, who sat on the stage, jumped up and tried to put on a respirator. He made several convulsive moves, trying to pull the mask over his face, and fell"
BBC: Maybe aerosolized Valium, maybe BZ (a hallucinogenic agent), maybe some unknown psychedelic agent.
BBC: "Mr Felhengauer said it took the special forces over an hour to get all the hostages out of the building, and that the antidote was used too late to prevent the after-effects.
He also did not rule out that the special forces - who administered the antidote - simply did not have enough of the preparation".
CNN: Nerve agent link to hostage deaths.
To sum up: With the razor thin margins for error in the situation, the Russians seemed to have gone for something significantly more powerful than the standard calmative agents, and hoped the antidote (just one reference to it?) would save most. Hard to say what exactly happened, but it does seem pretty clear an agent capable of knocking out people that fast as some significant effects on central nervous system. Also noteworthy would be the fact Russians so far have not identified the agent used.

Update 3
Washington Post: All but one of the 117 dead hostages were killed by the gas used. About 650 hostages were released, some 200 of them still in critical condition.

2002-10-23T23:29:00.000+03:00

Random thought of the day: Post WW2 Japan, possible Iraq occupation comparisons

In short, does it make any sense? To sum up, Japan had an effective state administration and a distinctively first world economy (the sort which could wage war against a collection of regional powers and U.S. for years). Is there anything even remotely resembling the Japanese bureucracy/administration McArthur utilized present in Iraq? Or for that matter, ethnic divisions. Japan was and still is ethnically remarkable homogenic, which can't be said about Iraq (Say, the split between Sunni and Shi'a muslims, arabs and kurds,etc.)
That particular comparison sounds like trying to make the lame run and the blind see, yes? (Arguments to the contrary are welcome, if someone can educate me. I am curious).

2002-10-22T20:06:00.000+03:00

Freedom of Speech vs. Hate Speech: Houellebecq Acquitted

Says the Guardian. Next up, Oriana Fallaci for her "Rage and Pride".

Reason magazine provides some more background on the topic. Interestingly, Houellebecq's book Platform ends up with a depiction of a bombing of a Southeast Asian tourist trap. Slanderous blasphemy, that.

Reason notes that "If anything, blasphemy in the west is more difficult than it should be.", and of course could become even more so with the proliferating legislation dealing with hate speech and incitement (which leads to the usual question: Just how much is enough? And how much is too much.And finally, how is the same legislation implemented in the case of ,say, market sales of Protocols of the Elders of Zion as opposed to Fallaci's Rage and Pride?)

2002-10-21T23:07:00.000+03:00

Russia, Makeup of military budget

According to The Moscow Times/AP , Russia declassified the makeup of it's defense budget for the first time on Friday. About 11 billion $, looks like. For comparison, U.S. military budget would be in the 350 billion neighbourhood, and countries like France,Japan and UK each put in roughly 40 billion. In raw dollar terms, Russia's military spending is roughly on level with Israel and South Korea

2002-10-21T14:20:00.000+03:00

Ireland, Referendums

Well, turned out to be a yes vote. Next on agenda, how the Dutch caretaker government views EU expansion,and what effect it will have on the plans for the Copenhagen summit in December. That's keeping in mind the last bit in the news was the EU commission report, and the actual decisions on the expansion will be made at the summit. Among other things that'll be making the news will be the usual suspects: Funding feuds, agricultural subsidies, repartitioning the budget pie in preparation for the expansion, some more agricultural subsidies.

Back to reality with it in any case, Ireland's referendum result removed one obstacle, but with the way the expansion project carries a lot of extra political baggage (say, Germany using it as a lever to reform the CAP, or the funding in general) due to various national agendas it's by no means a done deal. Expect a lot of vigorous protests from the Mediterranean countries who'll be busy trying to retain a share of the EU structural funds and subsidies.

2002-10-19T22:26:00.000+03:00

Steve den Beste,Apple,Religion

A highly entertaining article by SdB about blind faith,macs, Altivec (peace be upon it's name), powerPC 970.

2002-10-17T18:36:00.000+03:00

North Korea. Nuclear weapons. Regional effect.

N. Korea Admits Having Secret Nuclear Arms. -Washington Post.
Opportunity, Peril Seen in N.Korea Nuclear Admission. -ABC news/Reuters.

In the second part of North Korean show-and-tell: Nuclear weapons programme. On the whole, the information in itself was not so much of a surprise compared to the fact they actually admitted the existence of the programme (keeping in mind there's been various evidence displayed to support the view that they do have one before. Didn't stop them from stonewalling it, regardless of the evidence), particularly when it's coming not long after the admission about the kidnapped Japanese citizens during Koizumi's diplomatic trip there. As it is, the official commentary from the region seems to be fairly laid back so far:

"The government is paying close attention to this frank confirmation of nuclear suspicions during special envoy Kelly's visit to North Korea and we regard it as a sign North Korea is willing to resolve this problem through dialogue," Yim (Sung-joon, a SK presidential adviser on national security and foreign policy) said.
Or
"There will be no change to the normalization talks due to start on October 29," Prime Minister Koizumi told reporters. "We want to ask North Korea to deal with this sincerely and get rid of the nuclear suspicions."

One theory would be that NK is coming clean bit by bit after reaching the conclusion that with the state their economy is in they absolutely must open up some, and to make it work it requires somewhat working relationship with both SK and Japan, and the recent admissions are one way of showing they're ready to make concessions on it. Among other tidbits concerning the economy theory would be their recent relaxation of grain price controls (July 27th - Aug 2nd number of The Economist) and the capitalistic enclave experiment (which led to some of the more bizarre bits of news, with it's Chinese director getting arrested.) , both of which would qualify as tentative movements to experiment with the China model.

The simplest theory would be the evidence displayed was unequivocal, and the admission is just damage control (not to mention publicity control. It's still preferable to appear tocome out clean on your own and pretend like you just might be starting a trend instead of having U.S do it for you and end up even deeper in the pariah-land than before), and the nuclear programme represents their biggest bargaining chip in extorting concessions from their neighbours. In any case, with SK having presidential elections in 2 months, it is certain to have some impact on their southern neighbour, and it just might turn out to be something similar than in the case of the kidnappings (ie. popular anger). And finally, the NK stance could be "just" one kind of a hedge in the "Husseinite" style: if you happen to be an international pariah, the only way to avoid being pushed around by U.S is to raise bets with weapons of mass destruction.

2002-10-17T14:16:00.000+03:00

That didn't take long..

Parliament to ponder supervision of internet

As it happens, work on a constitutional amendment to the freedom of speech act is underway in the parliament (and was, before the bombing and the following discoveries about the role the net played in obtaining information for bomb construction), and one of the main topics of the work even before last weekend was the effect of internet on publishing. Consequently, the treatment of internet publications of any kind significantly raised it's profile, including who should be held accountable for internet publications and how.

To quote one member of the parliament: "However, I hope that a momentary situation is not taken advantage of in a way that would limit some fundamental rights".
Agreed. Though how exactly those rights intersect with interests of public security is an issue deserving active debate.

2002-10-17T09:38:00.000+03:00

Fraud of the Year: Think Big

Amazing creativity:
"IF YOU must tell lies, tell very big ones. Last week a gang in Johannesburg were caught telling a whopper: they were masquerading as South Africa's central bank. "

-The Economist

2002-10-15T09:52:00.000+03:00

Mall Explosion, more investigation results

Turns out the bomber had experimented with his creations before, at least according to some postings by him on the net (With HMTD). If that turns out to be correct, he was somewhat more skilled than initially assumed (HMTD is sensitive to heat,friction,shock,etc. and apparently somewhat complicated to manufacture). According to the police, HMTD highly likely was not used in the mall bombing, however (mostly due to the shock sensitivity.). HMX would be the candidate of similar explosives, according to Helsingin Sanomat (in finnish),being simpler to manufacture and handle.

Finally, police have detained several people in connection to the bombing, and as of tuesday morning one was still arrested. (Helsingin Sanomat). Police also stressed (again) they believe Gerdt acted alone.

Update 17.10.2002

"Police hold 17-year-old message board enthusiast in Myyrmäki bombing case" -Helsingin Sanomat. And the 17-yr old would be the administrator of a "Home Chemistry Forum" on the net, and one where the bomber Petri Gerdt was a frequent contributor.

Update 18.10.2002

Helsingin Sanomat: "On Thursday Finland's central criminal police, the National Bureau of Investigation, released a 17-year-old schoolboy they had been holding in connection with the bombing of the Myyrmanni shopping mall in Vantaa last Friday. The police say that the boy, a resident of Hämeenlinna, is not a suspect of any crime in connection with the bombing.". And yet some more evidence pointing in the direction Petri Gerdt planned and carried out the bombing by himself.

2002-10-12T06:42:00.000+03:00

Local news: Explosion at a mall in Helsinki suburbs

Helsingin Sanomat: So far six fatalities and upwards of 50 injured. Initial reports indicated gas cylinders may have been the cause. However, it was later noted that there are are no static gas systems of any kind nor should there have been anything near the amount required for an explosion of that magnitude in the building (if at all). The technical director of the mall also noted there should not be anything explosive in the technical systems of the building. And finally, part of the roof of the building (made of glass) caved in, and added to the shower of debris and injuries.And yes, police have not ruled out the possibility of a bomb. More on it later as more information is published.

Update 12.10.2002 19:35
Helsingin Sanomat: Death toll rises to 7, bomb confirmed as the cause of the explosion.Some of the injuries were caused by pellets in the bomb (ball bearings,shotgun pellets?). Based on the initial evidence, the main suspect is a ~20 year old Finnish student who died in the explosion (ethnicity unspecified as of yet. Apparently local.) Among the few tidbits noted was that he had no previous criminal record. Or as the prime minister put it : "It was an act of terror," Lipponen told Finnish media. "It is too early to say whether it was a terrorist organisation or a single person acting."

Update 12.10.2002 23:45
The bomber appears to be a 19 year old Finnish student from Vantaa (nearby Helsinki. Same town than where the mall is located). Police found bombmaking equipment and instructions downloaded from net from his apartment. The motive for the attack is still unknown. From CNN: "Politics was not believed to be a motive, journalist Mika Makelainen told CNN, and the student was believed to have been suffering mental problems"

Update 13.10.2002 23:00
The bomber was identified in public (In Helsingin Sanomat ,in finnish). One Petri Gerdt. An ethnic finn, says AP report. So far nothing hinting at involvement of other people has been found.

And as a sidenote, since Glenn at instapundit wondered about it, the last explosion (a remote controlled car bomb) in Helsinki turned out to be an assassination (second attempt against the victim, who also had a track record of drug related conviction and some violent crime ones).

2002-10-10T17:59:00.000+03:00

Quote of the day. On the joys of European intelligence cooperation

"They are hard-ass orators when the Americans want to move on the Taliban or Saddam. But when it comes to cracking down on radical leaders in Londonistan, they do nothing for fear of Islamist retaliation."
- A senior French anti-terrorism official on the British. -Time

2002-10-09T16:46:00.000+03:00

Steel Tariffs,EU & US. Again

And the negotiations continue.And like before, it's like pulling teeth. The current status is that a little over half of EU steel exports into US is exempt from the tariffs, and more are expected (after the elections at least). Also, WTO is expected to rule on them in March 2003.
"The interests of our steel industry are very much focused on future exemptions," (EU trade commissioner) Lamy said.

-www.sunspot.net (AP wire)

2002-10-09T13:18:00.000+03:00

Animal liberation, local style

20 thousand fur foxes & minks poisoned. Turns out the symptoms suggest botox.
Or as local daily Helsingin Sanomat puts it:
"The symptoms shown by the foxes suggest botulin poisoning, because the poison involved affects the central nervous system, which paralyses the muscles, and causes a rapid death"

Final confirmation on whether it was botox should arrive by thursday. Remains to be seen.

Update: Helsingin Sanomat. It was botox, indeed. The open question would be whether it was a case of accidentally contaminated feed or purposefully introduced. Most likely the former.

2002-10-02T23:21:00.000+03:00

US - Russia oil summit in Houston

Bringing some results, looks like, as well: "The U.S. Export-Import Bank said Tuesday it would sign a $100 million agreement with the oil majors to provide medium- and long-term loans to buy U.S. equipment and services for exploring, refining and marketing.". Apparently for Lukoil,Yukos and Sibneft on the Russian side. Other topics included the usual what you'd expect from a trade meet, ramping up trade, looking up for some energy security, and so forth. Nothing on the Russian oil tycoons' wish for "reasonable assurances" that their investment in Iraq won't go to waste with the presumable US installed government in Iraq refusing to honor it's debts to Russia, however.

-The Moscow Times

2002-09-27T18:17:00.000+03:00

Security Council resolutions, Iraq,Israel,ec.

An interesting commentary on the issue in Jerusalem Post, particularly as it relates to US abstaining from using it's veto on the resolution about the Israeli siege of Mukata in Ramallah (of course they introduced a resolution draft on it as well), and the consistency in expecting compliance to those resolutions. Mostly in terms of just how much leeway you can afford with looking the other way if you're selling the case against Iraq with the resolution non-compliance (among other things, obviously) at the same time. All in all, seems like an unusually daft move on the part of Israel's government, caving into to the urge "to do something" and going about it in a rather unproductive manner to their own interests, seems like all it accomplished was to provide more ammunition for the anti-Israel camp. That said, US is putting some pressure on Israel over the issue, and if nothing else I suppose it serves as a reminder that the respective national interests obviously differ.

2002-09-25T16:19:00.000+03:00

Ivory Coast, part II

Looks like the French rolled into Bouake, securing at least that missionary school on the way. More on it on CNN

2002-09-23T15:40:00.000+03:00

Ivory Coast, coups, etc.

Yet another African coup attempt, looks like. So far the reporting from the area has been pretty fragmentary, but it seems the French troops are now in position in Abidjan (their base), Yamoussoukro and near Bouake. Bouake is under rebel control right now, and some Western citizens are trapped in the town (including 160 US citizens and some Europeans at a Christian Academy as well as the French citizens).

And as Reuters puts it: "The troops, from units experienced in getting foreigners out of African trouble spots, are poised to push into Bouake to rescue any foreigners whose countries ask Paris for help." Probably French Marines and/or Foreign Legion.
"We are here to approach the center of the crisis and the area where there is a threat to the expatriates," a senior French officer told Reuters. "We hope our presence will dissuade anyone from threatening their security."

More info: Brand new google news search, seems to work very well, it's scouring around 4000 news sites for new material continuously, freshest news from it so far was published 6 minutes ago.

2002-09-21T01:18:00.000+03:00

Local commentary on Iraq

Mildly surprising as such, today's Ilta-Sanomat (a newspaper/tabloid with a large circulation by local standards and published by the biggest local paper media corporation) carries a strongly pro-invasion column right next to it's editorial page. Or in the words (translated by me, hopefully well enough) of the author Juha-Pekka Tikka:
"The weapon's inspections in Iraq are a good thing. For example, 25 divisions of extremely well equipped inspectors with air support sounds like an idea that should be acted upon immediately" .. "Or more seriously, the way to inspect for Saddam Hussein's weapons is to first remove him and inspect later".. "During the liberation of Iraq the rest of the world can just as well stick on the sidelines to discuss pacifism, just as long as the modern day Chamberlains stay out of the way of those with a job to do".

Later in the piece follows the usual Samuel Huntington and Mark Steyn quotes,etc. All in all, as far as I've noticed it's a somewhat unusual statement, if for no other reason than it's visibility and placement. The "all politics is local" statement applies here as well, until something bigger happens it's going to be mostly local news and economy.

2002-09-19T18:07:00.000+03:00

Russia,Georgia. Part II:Oil Pipelines

Something from the local newsdaily Helsingin Sanomat(in finnish. to show "it's there") which slipped past me last time I wrote on the topic. Namely, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline started (it was celebrated on wednesday in Baku). Of course what that means for Russia is that it destroys their monopoly on oil transport pipelines from the Caspian basin area, and thus lowers their influence in the former Soviet states (as in, control of the primary earner of hard currencies for the said countries). All in all, the pipeline should lessen the dependence on Persian Gulf oil in the west.
A good example of oil politics as well (the US-Russia setup in particular. Obviously Russia is served by the oil investment inside Russia proper, and more so if their infrastructure is built up to sell to US markets. And in the case of Central Asian republics, the same intererests do not quite meet when US & Co bypass their control to satisfy those same energy security needs).

2002-09-15T15:05:00.000+03:00

Vladimir on the move again

Looks like Putin managed to maneuver himself into a position where it will be US moving forward his agenda. This time over Georgia (again). Selling point would be that if US bombs a country on suspicion of WMD development, they can bomb a country if it's used as a base for crossborder guerrilla intrusions.

Then again: "The State Department took "strong exception" on Thursday to any threats by Russia against Georgia and said the United States would "oppose any unilateral military action" there." (Maybe it's just me, but that does provide some comic relief. US govt organ protesting against unilateral action?)
And of course, Russia has a veto at the UN Security Council , so they can hold up US agenda there by themselves if need be. I smell an Iraq for Georgia swap coming, they'll vote for the Iraq resolution and and US won't get into the way if they arrange for some resolution on the Georgia issue.

From the Washington Post.

2002-09-12T22:02:00.000+03:00

Russia,Georgia, Chechens.

Russia Journal reports on the ongoing tensions between Russian and Georgia, this time as a result of Russia's demand to stop Chechen fighters from operating from it's territory. Or as the article quotes:
"Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Georgia in a televised statement Wednesday that Russia would defend itself in line with United Nations Charter and its resolutions if the Georgian government fails to end rebels' raids into Russia's breakaway republic of Chechnya across the border."

An old fashioned conditional "or else.." statement in other words.

2002-09-08T19:44:00.000+03:00

Biological Weapons, US, Russia

In something of a return to old style secrecy, Russia nixed the latest US attempt to get access to some of their genetically engineered bioweapon anthrax strains . As before, the labs run by the Russian military are off limits to foreign observers, in this case a delegation of senator Richard Lugar (of the Nunn-Lugar act fame, in this context. An arms reduction veteran) & Co. In the case of Anthrax strain, the main item of curiosity is it's potential vaccine resistance (which has been reported in scientific journals etc. Esp.to US vaccines).
-Washington Post

2002-09-07T03:20:00.000+03:00

The Taxman Cometh..EU and Swiss Banking Laws

A news brief on Financial Times details the latest bit of trouble between EU and the Swiss, this time over banking secrecy laws.

"France, Britain and Germany on Friday demanded that a list of reprisals should be drawn up to put pressure on the Swiss, who are refusing to pass on information to EU tax authorities"

And of course it does coincide nicely with the concerns over money laundering and the financial traffic of variety of organizations.

2002-09-05T14:02:00.000+03:00

In Local News: The economy is picking up

A news brief in local daily Helsingin Sanomat (In Finnish. To show "it's there") on the latest economic forecasts. The result? Economy should grow about 1.9% this year, and next year's estimate 3.7% (Obviously highly uncertain. Oil prices to begin with could still have a large impact,should they behave the same way than during the Gulf War. Assuming US actually gets around to doing something about Iraq rather than talking about it).

2002-09-02T18:33:00.000+03:00

Pop artists in space

Now, after they've shot Lance Bass of N'sync into low earth orbit, maybe they could continue with the rest of the band. After that, moving onto Ricky Martin and Christina Aguilera would start to sound reeeally tempting.. :)

2002-08-30T02:25:00.000+03:00

EU,Russia,Kaliningrad, Visas

And the issue raises it's head again, with this time the local newspaper Helsingin Sanomat reporting on it. To make a long story short, Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave cut off from the main part of the country by states which are undergoing EU membership negotiation right now. Ie. It will be surrounded by EU member territory, and supposedly the new members will be part of the Schengen treaty (about free movement over internal borders) sooner or later.
And what changed in the local situation this time was that Russians retracted the visa free travel from Finland to St. Petersburg and the near region with short notice. Of course all this ties neatly into Vladimir Putin's proposal of visa free travel for Russian citizens into EU countries, both due to the Kaliningrad issue and otherwise. And finally, it has to be noted the visa-free travel has so far applied only to visits to Russia, Russians themselves have needed to apply for the visas all the time.
As for local importance, the cancellation of visa-free cruises will most likely be visible only in form of lost revenues on the Russian side.

2002-08-26T10:02:00.000+03:00

Slow return from the snail mail wilderness

Only a few days now, 29th is the date the DSL ought to be delivered. Sometime this week in all likelihood in any case. So far so good,and then it's back to work,play and yes, writing the weblog.

2002-08-13T16:38:00.000+03:00

DSL adventures

Finally on order, at a fairly moderate 60 €/month and 50€ for install (for a 512/512 line). And of course it turns out some other company owns the last mile of copper and is none too keen to share access to it's wiring. Ie. Extra chaotic delivery times, anything from 2 to 10 weeks. We'll see.

2002-07-31T11:47:00.000+03:00

Going offline for a few days

New apartment,no DSL. And of course the ISPs got a backlog of DSL orders keeping them busy for the next year ,as it is. We'll see how it goes.

2002-07-28T00:25:00.000+03:00

The Economist in/on North Korea

Apparently covering the unrest in Zimbabwe from the middle of things wasnt hard enough case. So this time it's North Korea.
Hard to say what's exactly going on, but something's happening with their economy (Government driven,obviously, in the orthodox Stalinist fashion). But what's interesting is why it's happening. In any case it looks like they're running onto the "glass ceiling" of communism big time: The one thing it doesnt do is to encourage efficiency. Famines tend be bad policies, even in autocratic states already riddled with poverty.

Let's end this one with a Solzhenitsyn quote: "You only have power over people as long as you don't take everything away from them. But when you've robbed a man of everything he's no longer in your power -- he's free again."

2002-07-27T16:29:00.000+03:00

US,Bush,Trade Promotion Authority

Washington Post details the compromise reached on the TPA bill. On the plus side, the poison pill amendment dealing with trade remedy laws was dropped, a particularly relevant topic since the anti-dumping measures and legislation worldwide is going to be on the agenda in any major trade negotiations. In any case, it should get US trade agenda moving and gives the administration some credibility, as it's regarded as waste of time to negotiatiate anything with the US if it's going to get picked apart in the congress. TPA obviously helps in getting around the "It may be good for the country but it's not good for my district..." syndrome.

Neverthless,interesting to see how it goes, maneuvering into any kind of position to take charge of trade negotiations is going to take a lot of work and creativity after the steel tariffs and agricultural subsidies (mostly with the third world. EU and Japan massively subsidize their own agriculture and they're significantly better positioned to take care of their own interests with US policies than rest of the world,anyway). And of course there's always overcoming the "Do as I say,not as I do" factor.

2002-07-26T22:11:00.000+03:00

Local news: Telecoms

Sonera (and their partner,Telefonica of Spain) pulled back from the 3G mobile network race in Germany. For Sonera, it meant in essence a €4.3 billion writedown, and the UMTS licenses are essentially considered zero-value assets now. -FT

2002-07-24T21:27:00.000+03:00

Commentary on Kesher Talk

Some noteworthy commentary on the situation in France on Kesher Talk. A worthwile read, go check it out.

The obligatory snappy soundbyte:
"When a synagogue is firebombed on Yom Kippur, it is absurd to claim that it doesn't constitute a hate crime because the attackers failed to spray paint the words 'Death to the Jews' on the temple's wall." -Nicolas Sarkozy (interior minister of France).

2002-07-24T20:20:00.000+03:00

Iran,Poland,Analogies.

Daniel Pipes comes up with an interesting analogy related to the public resignation of Ayatollah Taheri (And his scathing criticism of the hardliners): How well does the influential religious figures turning against the Islamic regime compare to workers turning against the "worker's paradise"(Solidarity movement,etc.)?

2002-07-24T12:39:00.000+03:00

Helsinki car bomb,part deux

New tidbits:
- The bomb was triggered by remote, in this case the sort used in battery driven toy cars.
- The remote control used for was found in a car which was sitting next to the blown up car when it went off. Frequency interference is one of the reasons under study.
- The person arrested in the case was driving the car where the police found the remote. Turns out the victim's neighbours had spotted him following the victim around,as well.

Or to sum up, the car bomb was an unusually spectacular murder and a second assassination attempt against the same victim (the previous one in december,a shooting. For his own reasons the victim didn't co-operate with the police) , the technical weaknesses in the bomb led to a situation where the controller was right next to the victim's car to trigger it, or then the bomb triggered on it's from frequency interference. In any case,the location the bomb went off (some 200m from the Helsinki Synagogue) was a coincidence, and the incident on the whole was indeed unconnected to what's happening in rest of the world (aside from potentially drug trade).

2002-07-22T19:36:00.000+03:00

Another giant squid washed ashore

Random nature news of the day: A CNN story about another architeutis found in Tasmania. This one weighed roughly 250 kg and was about 18 meters long (mostly tentacles). A mild oddity in the article was the implied comment the squid actually hunt/eat whales.A newborn sperm whale calf weighs four times as much as the recent specimen,a female sperm whale some 40 times,and a male 100+. On the other hand,those squid beaks don't get digested,so they've been found in the stomachs of dead whales. Sounds more plausible explanation that whales hunt them than vice versa. (that said, there's a lot of variety between whale species).

2002-07-22T18:20:00.000+03:00

Daddy, I wanna grow up to be an IP addy salesman..

%&#¤* ripoff. 50€/month for a block of 8. Sounds like the career of the future (at least until v6 sinks 'em).

2002-07-22T11:15:00.000+03:00

Les woodstockians & Co. IHT details the shifting landscape of European politics

An interesting article by IHT on the emerging consensus in Europe about the need for increased ability to project "hard power" on it's own if need be.

"Pascal Lamy, the European Union trade commissioner, thinks Kagan has it right: "Stop pretending that the United States and Europe share a common view of the world, recognize we have different world views and interests, and then manage our relations." (referring to Robert Kagan's article "Power and Weakness").

2002-07-22T03:34:00.000+03:00

From the good news dept:

No more Error 503's from Blogger. Just resaved both the normal and the archive templates and published. Worked like it should.

2002-07-22T03:30:00.000+03:00

Taiwan,submarines

It's a rocky road to acquire any advanced weaponry if you have a major power pressuring potential sellers: Financial Times details the saga of the submarines for Taiwan (Basicly a case of US pledging to deliver Taiwan submarines it didn't manufacture without bothering asking about it from anyone who does, and what happened then).

2002-07-19T23:02:00.000+03:00

Steel tariff exemptions,part n+1

And here we go again. The commission deadline on those sanctions was approaching, and so the Bush administration exempted another 76,000 tonnes of steel products from the tariffs. Sayeth Pascal Lamy: "Right now, the EU interest is best served by maintaining maximum pressure on the US to deliver a meaningful rebalancing package. The US has taken useful steps in that direction and has told us there is more to come". If I had to make a bet those exemptions will flood in after the elections (at least if GOP gains), more beneficial to both sides, there's already enough on the table to sink the Doha round a couple times over without adding to it (like one Australian study put it, both EU and US know perfectly well no WTO round is going to go anywhere without them supporting it,and it shows).

In any case, like the Financial Times puts it: "A definitive settlement will hinge on whether the US can exempt by its August 31 deadline enough further imports to satisfy the EU."

2002-07-19T12:36:00.000+03:00

Random Quote: French on Immigration

"Don't forget, an official of the Quai d'Orsay said this week, that we were the ones who created the Statue of Liberty, which embodies freedom and the call to all the hungry and oppressed of the world - and we installed it in America, not here."

2002-07-19T01:30:00.000+03:00

Random Quote

"There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct or more uncertain of its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things, because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old condition and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new..."

- Niccolo Machiavelli.

2002-07-18T20:02:00.000+03:00

Transatlantic business experiments: DaimlerChrysler finally turning around

Chrysler's back in black, says Detroit News. Expected operating profits for 2002 for all of DaimlerChrysler are in the 4 billion USD range, revised upwards from 2.7.

And from the "couldnt resist" department, a joke that's been making rounds here: "How do you pronounce DaimlerChrysler in German? - Daimler. The Chrysler is silent."

2002-07-18T13:56:00.000+03:00

Steel Tariffs: Exemptions

Washington Post: Too little,too late says the EU commission. So far those exemptions affect only 10% of the EU exports,which just won't do according to the commission. The trade commissioner Pascal Lamy will recommend whether to proceed with sanctions on August 1st. All in all, makes for an interesting balancing act for Bush administration, juggling between interests of local steel producers and the already verified EU sanction list which is the proverbial shot across the bow of the GOP (seeing as how it's tailored to put maximum hurt on republicans for smallest amount of actual economic damage. Countering steel tariffs with tariffs on fountain pens, pool tables,citrus fruit and whatnot). Additionally, WTO issued a ruling against the US legislation for handing out anti-dumping duties to the companies affected (And yet again,it's the steel industry's fingerprints all over that particular law as well).

2002-07-18T02:29:00.000+03:00

Realpolitik: No state for Iraqi Kurds, says Paul Wolfowitz

Washington Post reports on the results of Wolfowitz's support rallying tour in Turkey, among them the snippet about US stance towards keeping Iraq in one piece. I suppose that'd be part of the price for Turkey's cooperation,they don't want to see a Kurdish state on their southeastern border in the worst way, and their territory is rather important as a launching pad for any invasion into Iraq. Not something unexpected, in any case.

When things could get really interesting would be if Kurds tried to create their state regardless in the ensuing confusion of the campaign working on breaking down Iraqi infrastructure, both physical and administrative, particularly in terms of how Turkey would react (like,would it turn them from "liberators of Iraqis into conqueror of Kurds"? And what would be the US take on it. Particularly if it happens they got sizable formations inland, supplied through Turkey and more so, Kurdish territory in southern Turkey and northern Iraq.).

2002-07-16T12:07:00.000+03:00

A car bomb in Helsinki city center

The car blew up at 6:50 am this morning, killing it's driver and wrecking the car. The preliminary information indicates the driver was a Finnish citizen of Finnish descent,says Helsingin Sanomat (in finnish). Ha'aretz also notes the location was approximately 200 meters away from the Helsinki synagogue (though not on the same street, with several blocks in between). The police reports that the incident is investigated as a murder initially (with the driver being the victim,obviously),as well as that the police were "familiar with" the victim from an unrelated case.
The photo from Helsingin Sanomat,taken by an Italian tourist from her hotel room

Update (16:23, July 17th). Turns out the victim of the bomb attack was also the target of an assassination attempt in early December, got shot up pretty badly. Looking increasingly unlikely there was any kind of political motivation behind the bombing.

Update (01:52, July 18th). More in Helsingin Sanomat. Turns out the victim had also a track record of "minor drug conviction" as well as assault/battery/etc. conviction. Right now the investigation is focusing on connection with illegal drugs and possible drug debts. Also one suspect has been arrested.

2002-07-16T00:42:00.000+03:00

Finally..

Blogger was out of contact for a couple of days for me, probably due to the KPNQwest core shutting down or something. But here we are again, alive & posting. Now.. if only I got rid of that Error 503 from Blogger, things would be downright good.

2002-07-13T11:08:00.000+03:00

Liquefied natural gas: A Shell-led group still planning to build a LNG plant on Sakhalin

An article in the Moscow Times details the recent developments in the plans to build the world's largest liquefied natural gas plant on Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. While the project still lacks commitments from buyers,the group believes the demand in the region will materialize (in the Pacific Rim. US West Coast, Japan,Coastal China,etc.). Among the more obvious advantages of the project is it's location: the distance to Tokyo is less than 2000 kilometers, one sixth of the distance to Persian Gulf.

2002-07-13T11:02:00.000+03:00

Espionage: William Safire hands out "Golden Cloak and Dagger Awards"

Go read it out,a modestly entertaining article on the various intellegence agencies.

2002-07-12T06:53:00.000+03:00

Synthetic polio viruses

An article in IHT details the results of an interesting experiment: A group of New York researchers created functional polio viruses from "off the shelf" components. What's remarkable in the project is that they did not use any pre-existing original polio viruses, rather their versions of it were assembled from "off the shelf" snippets of DNA ordered from an Iowa company which were merged to create the complete genome in DNA form,and then that was turned into the RNA of the virus. And finally, the whole thing was tossed into a soup of required ingredients and the RNA did what it does in nature,encodes proteins which form the structure of the virus,among other things. And the result was synthetic viruses which were experimented with and proven to cause the disease in mice.
Among the implications the article points out is that if the process turns out to work with other viruses, it means they will never be truly extinct as only their sequenced genome is needed (that is,information you can,say,mail out as an e-mail attachment) to recreate them. (Unsurprisingly,smallpox was referred to, though it is a more complex virus).

2002-07-12T03:42:00.000+03:00

More on Iran: Spent nuclear fuel will not stay in Iran,say the Russians

"The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said work is under way on a supplementary agreement that will ensure in writing Iran's commitment to return spent fuel from the Bushehr civilian nuclear power plant. They added that Teheran has consented to these terms.", says the Moscow Times. That said,even if the Bushehr reactor turned out to be used for civilian purposes,the knowledge about nuclear fuel cycles will still get transferred,as the article points out.

2002-07-12T03:34:00.000+03:00

Iran bond launched

Says Financial Times. 53% of the issue went to middle-east , 42% into Europe and rest into Asia. The planned €500 million was raised.

2002-07-08T12:26:00.000+03:00

Iran,bond offering

a Financial Times article dated july 5th says Iran plans to proceed with it's eurobond offering this week, with the aim of raising at least €500 million. The governor of the central bank of Iran who is interviewed in the article notes that the bond is mostly intended to serve as an introduction and pave way for corporate offerings (Iran turns in a budget surplus and has more reserves than outstanding debt).

2002-07-06T19:30:00.000+03:00

New blog links

This time, Vegard Valberg, a Norwegian blogger. Among his better posts: Diplomacy 101 , and others (go see). You might also want to notice this one's a fellow who's complaining about nobody flaming him yet,despite his best efforts to spread insults around.

2002-07-06T17:12:00.000+03:00

New angles on old news: Russians find solace in Enron,says The Moscow Times

"After the U.S. financial scandals surrounding Enron, WorldCom and Xerox, a number of Russians are feeling a sense of affirmation that their graft-riddled corporate culture is no worse than that in the West." ...
"I have already heard a lot of people saying: "Look how bad America is, why do we need to improve ourselves?'" said William Browder, head of Hermitage Capital Management"
Among other interesting notions are complaints about "US overregulation" and "overly complicated" rules concerning running businesses.

And then there's the more realistic view, among points made:
- Russian accounting standards arent yet high enough it'd be much of a fall to land from there to Enron level.
- Stock prices are valued accordingly,the fraud risk built into the prices is keeping them low. Ie. in US companies for the most part are valued as if everything is clean until proven otherwise, in Russia they're not even assumed to be clean (by US or EU standards),and dont have much in the way of opportunities to prove otherwise.

2002-07-06T16:53:00.000+03:00

Russian oil shipment arrives in Texas

The Moscow Times reports on a new development in Russian oil exports: A tanker on contract with the Yukos delivered it's cargo of 200 000 metric tons of oil to Houston port. The shipment is the first one directly from Russia to the United States,and first of the 5 or 6 planned for this year. Yukos annonced the plan for oil shipments into US after a summit where Bush and Putin signed an energy cooperation statement, and the plan is now moving into execution.

2002-07-04T03:01:00.000+03:00

In local news: A base of the Greek terrorist organization November 17th found

Helsingin Sanomat reports(an AP wire news) the Greek police have found an arms cache and a safe house of the November 17th terrorist organization, the location is believed to be the HQ of the organization. Among the finds were "a significant amount" of weapons used by the organization,documents related to it's operation and the organization's flag. 22 people have died in the attacks organized by the group since 1975.

2002-07-03T20:17:00.000+03:00

Moscow Times,Reuters: Statistics and Oil Exports to Cuba

The article explains the backgrounds of the counterintuitive 150 000 barrels per day export drop indicated by Russian ministry statistics. Turns out the Russian government discreetly ignored the 200 000 barrels per day allocation (to state oil companies Rosneft and Zarubezhneft) for funding the shutting down of the cold war era Lourdes base in Cuba, and in fact the exports increased in June (the period covered in the statistics) setting the total export shipments at 2.74 million bpd.

2002-07-03T19:44:00.000+03:00

In local news: EU, genetically modified organisms,labeling

Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat reports (in finnish. link for reference and for those brave souls who actually found a translation engine capable of doing finnish somewhere) on an european parliament vote in Strasbourg earlier today (3.7.2002). The result being 305 for,207 against and 40 abstains in the vote to require GMO foodstuffs to carry a label if GMO ingredients were used in the manufacturing, including ones like vegetable oils which dont contain GMO traces even if the original ingredients contained them.

The current proposal which just got approved will still need to endure a couple rounds through the bureucratic grind: first with the ministers of EU countries,and then another round in the parliament. The issue is also noteworthy for being one of the more longerstanding and economically important ones in the trade spats between US and EU, with US opposing the labeling.

2002-07-02T21:09:00.000+03:00

Russian economy: "Bush's legs" ,small business and the Kursk

Russia will not compromise on safety and hygiene stands on poultry, says agriculture minister Alexei Gordeyev. What this means in practice is that if no middle ground is found, Russia will renew it's ban on poultry impors from the US on August 1st , hitting a sector of trade which amounted to 640 million USD in 2001 (from US alone, making Russia the biggest importer of US poultry products). -The Moscow Times

In other news: the number of small businesses in Russia is increasing, though both their relative numbers and efficiency are still behind European numbers. Also, the Duma passed new legislation easing up the taxation on small businesses with revenues less than 477 thousand USD. The study was authored by EU commission,a Russian ministry and TACIS (the EU aid program for former CIS countries). -The Moscow Times

And finally: on the Kursk incident. According to the Moscow Times (yes,again), the commission investigating the disaster has published it's findings: What sank Kursk was an explosion of torpedo fuel. So no collisions with sinister US submarines (unlike the early navy knee-jerk reaction went),no WW2 mines, just plain old fashioned technical malfunction causing a chain reaction.

2002-07-01T18:45:00.000+03:00

EU presidency switch,Israel

Denmark takes over the EU presidency on July 1st. So far it looks like the biggest items on the agenda are related mostly to the EU expansion, including taking a harder stance with the expansion schedule: Basicly, the countries which can't conclude their negotiations by the Copenhagen summit in December need not bother until 2007. Mostly this seems to be understood as directed to Poland who are still in the process of haggling over their membership conditions. In other news, the Danish PM who will be in charge of the circus for next six months seems to support the Arafat ouster, according to the Jerusalem Post. The quote sums it up nicely: "Rasmussen, in an interview with a Danish newspaper, said that since Arafat either can't or won't put an end to suicide bombings, there is a need for a Palestinian leadership that will."

2002-07-01T01:05:00.000+03:00

G-8 Summit from a Russian angle

Interestingly,the summit nominally supposed to handle the question of Africa ended up with Russia being the big winner,scoring up a 20 billion USD package to handle their decaying weapons stockpiles, both to secure existing ones and get rid of some potential hazards like the decaying northern fleet with it's collection of obsolete nuclear subs and the like. On the whole, Russian media seems to have greeted the results as an overall success: G-7 became G-8, and Russia secured it's place at the table in addition to the aforementioned aid package. A mildly triumphalist article by Russia Journal analyses the results.
In other news from the summit, a comment attributed to Gerhard Schröder, the Chancellor of Germany, handled the issue of Arafat and Palestine reforms. The substance of the comment was that while it may turn out Arafat gets re-elected, there's a wide base of support for democratization of the regime in the real sense (that is, even a re-elected Arafat is expected to behave like he was elected).

2002-07-01T00:35:00.000+03:00

Cesium Flavored Berries

More than half a ton of berries contaminated by radioactivity have been seized at markets in Moscow this month, says Russia Journal. What's significant is the origin of the berries: Western part of Belarus , an area heavily contaminated by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster (Some 16 years ago,in other words.And still going strong).

2002-06-30T05:30:00.000+03:00

Random thoughts on nationalism,inspired by a few posts in the blog still angry

Just finished reading Hagen Schulze's: States, Nations, Nationalism which tracks the development of the aforementioned institutions and concepts from middle-ages to the present. On the whole, it turned out to be much too complex a work to be absorbed in one go, but it did raise some questions I found fascinating. Jotted down a few notes a few notes on it for your amusement (note that it's hardly fluent prose. If you find any omissions or errors you consider important,do comment or email).

Birth of Nations
This will be a gross generalisation, but I think one can say with a reasonable accuracy that either states gave birth to nations, or nations gave birth to states. In case of the former, it applies mostly to the states in Europe that developed a central rule early, in particular France and England. France in particular would be an easy example as they were the first in a lot of things dealing with creation of state organs and institutions, whether it is a central bureucracy or a standing army. It's also worthwile to notice the status of language as a binding factor, Cardinal Richelieu founded the Academy of France in as early as 1635, and one of it's main functions was the standardization of the French language which lasted literally for centuries. In it's own way, religion played it's part here as well, as in the protestant christian countries the translated bible played a significant part in getting a head start with language consolidation (most striking example would be Martin Luther and german language).

Then there's the "other part" religion played, whether it's Spain of Isabella and Ferdinand expelling first the moors and then the jews or France expelling it's protestants (the huguenots). In any case, by the standards of the time each was quite an expedient move as it provided a single unifying factor:Catholicism. The 30-years war was in it's way the first pan-European war and last major one over religion (protestants vs. counter-reformation) and even then it wasnt that simple: France first under Richelieu and then Mazarin subsidized protestant Sweden with one hand while oppressing their own protestant huguenots with the other. But on the whole it can be said there was a strong tendency towards religious uniformity until 20th century, and even then religion was used as a nationalistic tool or a weapon when expedient (Northern Ireland,anyone?). In essence, in most places where uniformity could be achieved,it was aimed for. There were some notable exceptions to the rule, particularly Poland-Lithuania (which as a multicultural and multireligious empire was forced to be remarkably tolerant in order not to compromise it's internal stability). As you might notice from the name references, at this point (17th century) religious policies were primary tools of the monarchs and could be enforced only if the central government could impose it's will on the periphery.

In both cases ,with Spain and France, the tendency was toward one religion as fractuous minorities placed a lot in the way of additional burden on the state, and revolts were rather common. It's also noteworthy that the 30-years war was the main event when religion exited from the political landscape of foreign relations in Europe. As per usual,it took a destructive war to learn a lesson.
To sum up: In France,England.. perhaps Sweden in the north and other strong countries the strongest early influence to creating a national identity was a strong state (for it's time,anyway).

On the opposite end of the spectrum would be the current day states which were born as a result of nationalism, a pull created by unifying factors binding people living under different states and governments. Yet again, language was a big influence,and later on it's influence was further increased by a variety of cultural phenomena; whether English tales of King Arthur,French tales of Roland, or German national mythology. Also noteworthy was a kind of institutional historical revisionism, if the histories produced at the early half of 19th centuries are to be believed,Europe's a 50/50 split between descendants of Troy and Athens (with a little Sparta thrown into the mix). Germany in particular created a sort of "neo-pagan" history for itself,reaching back to the tribes mentioned by Romans,waxing poetic about the superiority of the german race (interestingly enough, of "germanic" peoples the english were by far the most successfull at that time. A minor fact people rather preferred to not to pay attention to). Note that in general nations forged by strong states were born earlier than states created by nationalist sentiment.

Like any political or cultural paradigm shift, nationalism also changed the wider political landscape, the power of the sentiment manifesting itself became abundantly clear in western europe by the era of Napoleon and levee en masse, which harnessed the rising national sentiment and produced something of a military revolution as a second order side-effect. And finally, the shift caused by the new French strategy forced their targets to follow, mostly evident in the flood of political and propaganda pamphlets of the era (by that time propanganda was already a relatively refined instrument). However, in Germany and Austria-Hungary where the "forced wakeup" of nationalism was tried hardest,it still failed to catch during the early half of 19th century. As a more or less direct result of that, the Vienna Congress was virtually the last time the traditional Westphalian "balance of powers" could be practiced in Europe (Metternich etc.). By late 19th century, the rules had already changed.

So.. the question to the audience would be: Which case would US fall under? If I had to pick myself,it'd be the first one, ie. State created the Nation. At least would make sense in view of the "constitution worshipping" and the fact the state started as multicultural so there were fewer unifying factors than Old World states which had already formed centuries before (Well,France and England,anyway. US is in real terms an old state.). Also: Civil War era in the US was fairly close to the era when nationalism started raising it's head in Europe "for real".. was there ever a kind of "European style" situation where nationalistic (or partisan?) feelings were exploited for political purposes, whether for demonising one's enemies or leveraging it for domestic purposes? Ie. How did the North vs. South conflict pan out in terms of nationalism.

Militant Nationalism
If I had to pick an example of it on a large scale,something that changed the face of Europe, it'd have to be the aftermath of German unification and the humiliating defeat of France in the Franco-German war of 1870-1871. If there ever was a lesson to be had from that particular war it would have to be this : Humiliation is fuel for extreme nationalism.The lesson was enforced quite strongly by WW1, enough so that the lessons had sunk in by the time WW2 peace treaties were concluded. After Alsace-Lorraine was annexed by Germany ,they became a kind of a rallying cry for nationalism in France(revenge is one of the more powerful motives around) as well as the spark for an arms race which eventually set the stage for World War I some 45 years later. The indoctrination reached the classrooms(Say, Maps of Alsace-Lorraine on classroom walls,showing the said provinces as an everpresent reminder, or a monument in Paris representing Strasburg draped over, just standing there,covered), and it reached the newspapers, in short, nationalism was being built up as a tool to unleash on one's enemies.
Among the more recent examples would be of course the whole nationalistic pressure cooker from 1870 until the end of World War 2, and in recent days the Serb Nationalism. Serb nationalism also ties up nicely with the history part. Note the references to battle of Kosovo Polje, or Field of Blackbirds: A battle between Serbs and Turks in 1389. Serbs lost. Of course Turks,The Ottoman Empire, were muslim,and it's muslim population settled throughout the Balkans. Which established a convenient tie to the "muslims as invaders" mindset and where it went. And this was in 1990s.

Differences in nationalism between US and the "Old World".
After a while of thinking, I think at least one thing stands out: Homogenization. It's worthwile to pay attention to some manifestations of that particular feature today, whether it's Pim Fortyun expressing doubts about the wisdom of muslim immigration, or Seville summit ponderings on immigration legislation. One of the overarching themes seemed to be European wariness (or hostility) towards those immigrants who commit the cardinal sin of "not being like us", or even worse still, those who do not even want to become like us. Whether it's about culture or increasingly,religion, which is one of the ironies of today's increasingly atheist Europe: Religion making a comeback as a political issue.

Finally: types of nationalism.
- Cultural Nationalism , the nation as a positive focus of identity
- Liberal Nationalism , the nation as a basis/means of national/individual self-rule. democracy.
- Triumphal Nationalism,the nation as a claim to superiority (militancy could be considered a negative form of this one.).
I think of these options, Europe would probably focus strongest on cultural nationalism which also includes a sense of continuity , in a way. Liberal nationalism certainly plays it's part, particularly in UK, but also on the continent though there's less emphasis on individual liberties than in UK or US. And finally, triumphal nationalism.. a couple world wars went a long way towards removing much of the triumphalism from European scene (ever wonder why europeans dont fly their flags a whole lot,as opposed to US?) though it seems it's starting to increasingly manifest itself in a negative sense, namely resentment towards those more powerful than us. Or in other words: The United States. And thus the constant chafing and quiet resentment at what is perceived as US pushing aside the local interests.
As for US.. I'd wager cultural nationalism would be lower on the scale, but liberal and triumphal nationalism very high. What do you think?

PS. Check out Michael Trossman's Patriotism and Pop Culture essay at www.stillangry.org.

Update v0.5 I suspect I'll be rewriting this one constantly until I bow to the inevitable and decide it's too wide a topic to fit in one page.

2002-06-28T12:08:00.000+03:00

On Iran

Seems like two noteworthy editorials/columns have appeared in the recent days, observing the issue of Iran from two different angles. First, there is the set of articles from Tehran by Thomas L. Friedman, ending with his "The View From Tehran", which mainly concentrates on the direction Iran seems to be heading and generally takes a moderately optimistic view if for no other reason than the fact the theocracy seems to be approaching the end of it's "shelf life". Friedman also handles the widening rift between the people in general and the conservative clerics, and whether it might result in some changes,including potentially radical ones.

A less optimistic view concentrating on what Iran is right now is taken by the Jerusalem Post which concentrates mostly on the security and strategy side of the issue including the Iranian funding of Hizbullah and other terrorist organizations. Neverthless,even Jpost makes a passing reference to the changing situation in Iran, with the caveat that "However, none of this should make the West forget who rules Iran effectively as opposed to theoretically and what these rulers are up to.". And finally, Jpost issues a warning and few requests regarding the recent careful opening of relations between EU and Iran (a few posts in my archive deal with the EU-Iran thing: 1, 2)

2002-06-28T09:35:00.000+03:00

EU and NATO assets

Today's local paper Helsingin Sanomat reports (in finnish.) on the ongoing negotiations between EU and Turkey over NATO assets. So far nothing to report which either didnt go down very well with the Turks, or didnt get vetoed by Greece. Javier Solana's press rep Christina Gallach admitted the whole mess will move to the next country holding the presidency. Of course,as it happens,next country holding it will be Denmark who dont take part in the defense planning, and thus the responsibility about it is moved to the next country after them: Greece itself. In short, moving from a mildly tragicomic situation into one that promises to be a real three ring circus. And of course, Greek and Turkish intransigency can hold up the project for quite some time (note that Greece will handle the matter for the next year).

To sum up:
- EU and US agreed that it's not a "good thing" to duplicate NATO structures, (both politically and economically) so the EU force planning started from the assumptions they'll draw from NATO assets.
- Turkey, with it's EU membership negotiations stalled , is a member of NATO but not EU, notices the whole plan just handed them some leverage,and proceeds to hold up any NATO assets whatsoever from EU.
- After some wrangling, EU comes up a relatively tolerable deal with Turkey. Turkey's neighbour (and EU member) Greece vetoes it.
- And now, Greece will be taking care of the negotiations with Turkey for a year.

2002-06-26T22:22:00.000+03:00

Direction of investment flows in Russia turning

IHT reports that more investment is flowing into Russia than leaving the country, a sign of increasing confidence. It is also the first time ever Russia is running a capital-account surplus. And finally, after the economic crash of 1998, Russia is now in it's fourth straight year of growth.

2002-06-26T21:02:00.000+03:00

Investment tip? Look for "sell" ratings.

"Researchers at the University of California and Stanford reviewed almost 40,000 stock recommendations from 213 brokerages during the year 2000. The most highly rated stocks had a -31% return for the year, according to the study. Meanwhile, the stocks least favorably recommended (that is, the sells) soared an annualized 49%--a differential of 80 percentage points" - Fortune

2002-06-26T05:26:00.000+03:00

Breaking the Bank

An interesting article by IHT on the coming trouble within EU concerning the CAP (common agricultural policy, read "pork") and expansion. In short form, should all the candidates be taken in, it'll increase number of farmers by half, without significantly increasing the financial base of EU (Former eastern bloc entrants have GDP/capitas significantly below current EU levels). In real terms it means something of a showdown between large net contributors and current subsidy receivers is in the work, starting between Germany and France.

Among other interesting finds: EU commission polled 16000 citizens about CAP (45 billion € /year. Roughly the same in USD). Half of them didnt know it existed.

Let's conclude with a recycled quote on CAP from the Economist: "the single most idiotic system of economic mismanagement that the rich Western countries have ever devised."

2002-06-26T02:19:00.000+03:00

Spreading the link lovin'

Welcome to visitors from Stephen Green's place (and elsewhere,of course). Boosting traffic nicely. I'm still a little bemused about that warblogger designation,though.(European politics do no hawkish reading make,hmm?)

2002-06-25T21:01:00.000+03:00

In local news

Finnish daily Ilta-Sanomat reports (In finnish.Just to show "it's there") the military is planning weapons purchases from Israel.
Among the items in the shopping basket: Ranger recon UAV, one of which was already acquired earlier and for which the military holds options for further orders. The other items would be the Spike AT missile which is also already in use by the army, and finally the Israeli built Dandy anti-ship missile which is participating in a tender by the navy and reportedly the favourite candidate. If the deals go through the estimated value is 100 million+ euros (for the Dandy alone,apparently, more for the rest). As expected, there are some political problems with it on the local scene (say, social democrats the leading party in the government and the social democrat president a former peace activist, sort of problem. That said,the president has given it the green light so far). A ministry of foreign affairs expert estimates the deals/decisions may be "delayed some" should the tensions in Israel go up. On the other hand, a ministry of defense official comments he is "not aware of any obstacles" for the purchases.

2002-06-25T19:51:00.000+03:00

New supercomputer top 500

And #1 spot goes to the Japanese Earth Simulator built by NEC of Japan. The Earth Simulator outperforms the previous champ, IBM's ASCI White, roughly 5 to 1.

2002-06-25T01:07:00.000+03:00

New Links

A few worthwile links (in the link bar): Moscow Times is a ,well,a muscovite daily,and Russia Journal a weekly. Russia Journal in particular comes up with interesting commentary every now and then (Can be surprising to see what western policies & politics look like from another angle).

And for the classics starved: The original "news" source, Pravda. Not the same thing anymore (un)fortunately.Suffice it to say it still has a nice "reddish tint" in it's reporting, leans left ,etc.